Guide to Optimal High Low Strategy
  •   Emili [1973092]Emili [1973092]
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    Thread created on 13:39:59 - 05/01/16 (3 years ago)
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    Last replied 04:04:07 - 21/11/18 (2 months ago)
    Introduction
    • High Low is an extremely easy game to play in Torn's casino. It is almost purely a game of chance, though optimal play will give you more return.
    • I can't give you an exact number for your expected returns as that involve a lot of factors.
      • On average, you will lose money if the modifier is lower than 42% (which is often the case, so on average you will lose money)
    • The modifier varies. From what I've heard, the modifier is changed to keep the global win-loss ratio as close to 1 as possible.
    • Just use the cheat sheet if you are in a hurry.

    Cheat Sheet
    • If the dealer has 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, or 8, guess higher.
    • If not, guess lower.
    • If the modifier is lower than 42%, cash out immediately once you win.
      • It is very important that you cash out before you play again, because if you cash out during play you will only get half of your payout!
    • If the modifier is higher than 42%, play one more time before cashing out.
      • Again, don't cash out during play!
    Basics
    • High Low is a simple game of chance. You guess whether the facedown card in your hand is higher or lower than the dealer's.
    • If you win, the pot has 15% of itself added.
    • If you lose, you lose the entire pot.
    • If you tie, you play again with new cards and the same amount in your pot.
    • The order of cards from low tohighare as follow:
      • 2
      • 3
      • 4
      • 5
      • 6
      • 7
      • 8
      • 9
      • 10
      • J
      • Q
      • K
      • A
    • Note that 8 is in the middle. That is, it has the same amount of cards higher and lower than it.
    • There might be a chance that I am missing something vital here since I don't know whether or not the deck being shuffled have any significance. If you know something that I don't, PM me!

    Optimal Play Strategy

    • I crunched some numbers for this, and explaining it in full would be complicated so PM me if you need any clarifications.
    • You don't know what the card in your hand is, but you can make an educated guess.
      • If the dealer's card is lower than 8, then that means there are more cards higher than the dealer's card than cards lower than it. So it's more likely that your card is a card that is higher.
      • The opposite apply.
      • If the dealer's card is 8, there is an equal chance that your card is higher or lower than it, so good luck and click whichever you fancy. Don't beat yourself up too much if you lose the pot.
    • You should claim immediately after you win if the modifier is lower than 42% because your expected payout will decrease exponentially the more you play.
    • If the modifier is higher than 42%, you should play one more time before claiming.
    • Here's an (unnecessary) explanation to the above two advice:
      • The average win rate is 71% (That means the average of the winning chance of all cards if you play sensibly).
      • The formula for the expected payout is: y = (starting bet * ((1 + modifier)^x)) * (0.71^x)
        • You can plug in the starting bet and the modifier, and you'll see that if the modifier is lower than 0.42 (well, not really, the cutoff point is slightly lower) then your expected payout will exponentially decrease while if the modifier is higher than 0.42 then your expected payout will exponentially increase.
      • Keep in mind that you have about 50% chance of winning twice in a row, so you should probably cash out once you win a second time, or you can push your luck, because you have a 35% chance of winning thrice in a row.
    Wow, that was a lot of words. Please tell me what you guys think! Also, this was mostly logic work, and I'm a beginner, so I might be wrong. Please let me know if there is anything I got wrong or missed.

    tl;dr read the cheat sheet
  • ~BS~ Multipass [1955315]Multipass [1955315]
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    Posted on 19:42:05 - 05/01/16 (3 years ago)
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    You can count the cards too. It tells you when the deck is shuffled. After a shuffle if you note down all the cards you've seen (2 per turn) then the choice you make can be a bit more informed. If you know you've seens all the 2s and 3s then 8 is not in the middle anymore as a basic example. I built a spreadsheet (because I'm obsessive) that calculates wether I should choose hi or low based on occurance of cards since last shuffle. Still no merit though!

    nice guide : )

    Edit 2 yrs later cos someone upvoted this - I got the merit ages ago now. Don't know when.

    Last edited by Multipass on 16:09:56 - 31/01/18
  • UR Stoiki [1966351]Stoiki [1966351]
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    Posted on 23:05:12 - 05/01/16 (3 years ago)
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    prety good guide,simple,not to complicated
  • SH Nazure [1964909]Nazure [1964909]
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    Posted on 14:36:35 - 06/01/16 (3 years ago)
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    thanks for the great guide.

    I've never realize that it's possible to claim the prize immediately. Back then, I normally just click continue until i lose all the pot  or cash-out half prize @@

    A simple advice: Play at small-bet when you not sure about the deck (what card already out, what's not); then begin card-counting when you see that deck has been shuffled, and bet-high :)
    Last edited by Nazure on 02:04:06 - 07/01/16
  • Pony Kakabu [1932221]Kakabu [1932221]
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    Posted on 07:33:28 - 10/01/16 (3 years ago)
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    Emili [1973092]

    Introduction
    • High Low is an extremely easy game to play in Torn's casino. It is almost purely a game of chance, though optimal play will give you more return.
    • I can't give you an exact number for your expected returns as that involve a lot of factors.
      • On average, you will lose money if the modifier is lower than 42% (which is often the case, so on average you will lose money)
    • The modifier varies. From what I've heard, the modifier is changed to keep the global win-loss ratio as close to 1 as possible.
    • Just use the cheat sheet if you are in a hurry.

    Cheat Sheet
    • If the dealer has 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, or 8, guess higher.
    • If not, guess lower.
    • If the modifier is lower than 42%, cash out immediately once you win.
      • It is very important that you cash out before you play again, because if you cash out during play you will only get half of your payout!
    • If the modifier is higher than 42%, play one more time before cashing out.
      • Again, don't cash out during play!
    Basics
    • High Low is a simple game of chance. You guess whether the facedown card in your hand is higher or lower than the dealer's.
    • If you win, the pot has 15% of itself added.
    • If you lose, you lose the entire pot.
    • If you tie, you play again with new cards and the same amount in your pot.
    • The order of cards from low tohighare as follow:
      • 2
      • 3
      • 4
      • 5
      • 6
      • 7
      • 8
      • 9
      • 10
      • J
      • Q
      • K
      • A
    • Note that 8 is in the middle. That is, it has the same amount of cards higher and lower than it.
    • There might be a chance that I am missing something vital here since I don't know whether or not the deck being shuffled have any significance. If you know something that I don't, PM me!

    Optimal Play Strategy

    • I crunched some numbers for this, and explaining it in full would be complicated so PM me if you need any clarifications.
    • You don't know what the card in your hand is, but you can make an educated guess.
      • If the dealer's card is lower than 8, then that means there are more cards higher than the dealer's card than cards lower than it. So it's more likely that your card is a card that is higher.
      • The opposite apply.
      • If the dealer's card is 8, there is an equal chance that your card is higher or lower than it, so good luck and click whichever you fancy. Don't beat yourself up too much if you lose the pot.
    • You should claim immediately after you win if the modifier is lower than 42% because your expected payout will decrease exponentially the more you play.
    • If the modifier is higher than 42%, you should play one more time before claiming.
    • Here's an (unnecessary) explanation to the above two advice:
      • The average win rate is 71% (That means the average of the winning chance of all cards if you play sensibly).
      • The formula for the expected payout is: y = (starting bet * ((1 + modifier)^x)) * (0.71^x)
        • You can plug in the starting bet and the modifier, and you'll see that if the modifier is lower than 0.42 (well, not really, the cutoff point is slightly lower) then your expected payout will exponentially decrease while if the modifier is higher than 0.42 then your expected payout will exponentially increase.
      • Keep in mind that you have about 50% chance of winning twice in a row, so you should probably cash out once you win a second time, or you can push your luck, because you have a 35% chance of winning thrice in a row.
    Wow, that was a lot of words. Please tell me what you guys think! Also, this was mostly logic work, and I'm a beginner, so I might be wrong. Please let me know if there is anything I got wrong or missed.

    tl;dr read the cheat sheet
    Emili, 
    For now I won't rate your guide because there are some things that don't work out in practice on your cheat sheet.  Your cheat sheet is basing the guess on a "raw" deck, meaning a brand new game with an unshuffled deck, and even with a brand new unshuffled deck I still disagree with your cheat sheet's suggestion to always bet high on 8 because there's literally a 50% chance of it being higher or lower when the value is 8 in a new game...so it's truly a lucky guess if you get that one right.  

    Also let's say that you play well, and you make it a few rounds into a single game of high/low, the cards that were used already by the dealer and you will be subtracted from the main pool of 52 cards. So the game becomes much more of a card counting/calculating game if you make it through a few rounds because depending on the cards that were used, it might not always be in your best interest to "always" bet high with low value cards and low on high value cards.  

    There's also the element of the shuffle that makes card counting and winning the game because of that harder.  Let's say that you play a couple games, and then you do well and go in a few rounds in a single game...and then the game says "Deck shuffled" or something like that.  That replaces back all the cards that were used resetting the game back to the original odds.  So you might be 10 rounds into a single game, hit a "Deck shuffled", and then when an 8 is drawn you're back to the original 50% chance.  The only thing I still haven't figured out is what triggers a "Deck shuffled" because it doesn't happen every game (my guess is that when all 52 cards have been displayed over the course of multiple games that triggers the shuffle..but I'm not sure).  

    I'm mentioning this information as a caution that High/Low isn't "almost purely a game of chance" when you get several rounds in, but in the early stages of a game, yeah it's more like that.  

    I do like your modifier information.  



  • VICT My_Dixie_Normus [2046238]My_Dixie_Normus [2046238]
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    Posted on 20:42:38 - 23/03/18 (9 months ago)
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    this guide got in the newspaper! https://www.torn.com/news.php?ID=360

    When god was handing out writing skills, he skipped me :( 

    My fun little forum game THAT JUST MADE ME BROKE

    Give me karma

    Also I'm buying cheap morphine

  •   Emili [1973092]Emili [1973092]
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    Posted on 07:08:25 - 25/03/18 (9 months ago)
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    My_Dixie_Normus [2046238]

    this guide got in the newspaper! https://www.torn.com/news.php?ID=360

    Nice. I'd want to add though that after analyzing more, the verdict is that High-Low isn't a very good casino game if you want to win (or, well, lose little, because this is a casino!)

    I recently posted a new thread with a minor edit that should bump up the chances a little, but it wasn't enough. Maybe in the future I'll write up the most optimal strategy, but I'm betting it's gonna be a) Difficult to implement and b) Still won't save you from the house edge.

    EDIT: Not to mention.... we don't even actually know the size of the deck!

    Last edited by Emili on 07:09:23 - 25/03/18
  •   XYZ_101 [2141511]XYZ_101 [2141511]
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    Posted on 03:17:06 - 08/11/18 (2 months ago)
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    Is it possible for me to get the same card 4 times in a row at the start of the game?

    I got 4* 10 and it was all higher...

    I think the Casino is rigged.

  •   RiChHeN20111 [2150954]RiChHeN20111 [2150954]
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    Posted on 05:33:39 - 14/11/18 (2 months ago)
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    Wondering who has gotten the pi from the 1m spin the wheel

  •   trickey [2162144]trickey [2162144]
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    Posted on 04:04:07 - 21/11/18 (2 months ago)
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    not me