Is it rigged or am I just salty? A study of HI-LOW | Gambling …
Is it rigged or am I just salty? A study of HI-LOW
  • MMoM Sifumax [2671803]Sifumax [2671803]
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    Thread created on 01:24:03 - 12/08/21 (2 months ago)
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    Last replied 04:54:57 - 14/10/21 (13 days ago)
    After playing 1100 High low games chasing this merit, I've started to study the statistics. This is how the majority of my games end.

    6 And below has a 69% chance to be low when picking high
    J and higher has a
    63% chance to be High when I choose low

    But if we pull a Reverse Uno card.

    6 and below has an 86% chance to be high when picking low
    J and Higher has a 91% chance to be low when picking High



    Below are some Samples from today's study. Not all are included.
    ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
    You chose low on high-low (round #2) but your card was high (K vs A) so your $12 pot was lost
    You chose low on high-low (round #4) but your card was high (J vs Q) so your $16 pot was lost
    You chose low on high-low (round #2) but your card was high (K vs A) so your $12 pot was lost
    You chose low on high-low (round #3) but your card was high (Q vs A) so your $14 pot was lost
    You chose low on high-low (round #2) but your card was high (Q vs K) so your $12 pot was lost
    You chose low on high-low (round #2) but your card was high (Q vs A) so your $12 pot was lost
    You chose low on high-low (round #3) but your card was high (J vs Q) so your $14 pot was lost
    You chose low on high-low (round #14) but your card was high (Q vs K) so your $88 pot was lost
    You chose low on high-low (round #4) but your card was high (J vs Q) so your $16 pot was lost
    You chose low on high-low (round #5) but your card was high (J vs A) so your $19 pot was lost
    You chose low on high-low (round #1) but your card was high (J vs A) so your $10 pot was lost
    You chose low on high-low (round #1) but your card was high (J vs K) so your $10 pot was lost
    You chose low on high-low (round #8) but your card was high (K vs A) so your $31 pot was lost
    You chose low on high-low (round #4) but your card was high (Q vs K) so your $16 pot was lost
    You chose low on high-low (round #7) but your card was high (K vs A) so your $26 pot was lost
    You chose low on high-low (round #3) but your card was high (K vs A) so your $14 pot was lost
    You chose low on high-low (round #5) but your card was high (J vs Q) so your $19 pot was lost
    You chose low on high-low (round #3) but your card was high (J vs Q) so your $14 pot was lost
    You chose low on high-low (round #4) but your card was high (J vs A) so your $16 pot was lost
    =========================================================================
    You chose high on high-low (round #6) but your card was low (4 vs 2) so your $22 pot was lost
    You chose high on high-low (round #16) but your card was low (5 vs 2) so your $126 pot was lost
    You chose high on high-low (round #4) but your card was low (3 vs 2) so your $16 pot was lost
    You chose high on high-low (round #9) but your card was low (5 vs 2) so your $37 pot was lost
    You chose high on high-low (round #2) but your card was low (6 vs 2) so your $12 pot was lost
    You chose high on high-low (round #3) but your card was low (5 vs 2) so your $14 pot was lost
    You chose high on high-low (round #3) but your card was low (5 vs 3) so your $14 pot was lost
    You chose high on high-low (round #1) but your card was low (6 vs 4) so your $10 pot was lost
    You chose high on high-low (round #1) but your card was low (6 vs 2) so your $10 pot was lost
    You chose high on high-low (round #8) but your card was low (6 vs 4) so your $31 pot was lost
    You chose high on high-low (round #1) but your card was low (6 vs 4) so your $10 pot was lost
    You chose high on high-low (round #16) but your card was low (6 vs 4) so your $126 pot was lost
    You chose high on high-low (round #1) but your card was low (4 vs 2) so your $10 pot was lost
    You chose high on high-low (round #10) but your card was low (5 vs 3) so your $44 pot was lost
    You chose high on high-low (round #2) but your card was low (6 vs 2) so your $12 pot was lost
    You chose high on high-low (round #2) but your card was low (5 vs 3) so your $12 pot was lost
    You chose high on high-low (round #2) but your card was low (8 vs 4) so your $12 pot was lost
    You chose high on high-low (round #13) but your card was low (5 vs 2) so your $74 pot was lost
    You chose high on high-low (round #2) but your card was low (5 vs 4) so your $12 pot was lost
    You chose high on high-low (round #4) but your card was low (6 vs 4) so your $16 pot was lost
    You chose high on high-low (round #3) but your card was low (4 vs 3) so your $14 pot was lost
    You chose high on high-low (round #11) but your card was low (5 vs 2) so your $52 pot was lost
    You chose high on high-low (round #2) but your card was low (6 vs 4) so your $12 pot was lost
    You chose high on high-low (round #2) but your card was low (6 vs 3) so your $12 pot was lost
    -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------


    ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
    You chose low on high-low (round #8) but your card was high (5 vs 8) so your $31 pot was lost
    You chose low on high-low (round #8) but your card was high (5 vs 8) so your $31 pot was lost
    You chose low on high-low (round #1) but your card was high (5 vs J) so your $10 pot was lost
    You chose low on high-low (round #1) but your card was high (6 vs J) so your $10 pot was lost
    You chose low on high-low (round #1) but your card was high (5 vs K) so your $10 pot was lost
    =======================================================================
    You chose high on high-low (round #1) but your card was low (Q vs J) so your $10 pot was lost
    You chose high on high-low (round #7) but your card was low (Q vs 6) so your $26 pot was lost
    You chose high on high-low (round #1) but your card was low (Q vs J) so your $10 pot was lost
    You chose high on high-low (round #6) but your card was low (Q vs 4) so your $22 pot was lost
    You chose high on high-low (round #1) but your card was low (Q vs 2) so your $10 pot was lost
    You chose high on high-low (round #2) but your card was low (Q vs 7) so your $12 pot was lost
    You chose high on high-low (round #3) but your card was low (K vs 2) so your $14 pot was lost




    Obviously, I'm not a statistics major but, Let me know your thoughts. Is it rigged? Am I salty? How has your path gone towards the 25 in a row merit.
  • ODB Teq [1472890]Teq [1472890]
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    Posted on 11:14:15 - 13/08/21 (2 months ago)
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    I f**king hate this merit

  • FAS qwee [1995502]qwee [1995502]
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    Posted on 03:46:57 - 14/08/21 (2 months ago)
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    If you tell me how many times you chose low and how many times you chose high on 6 and below and J or higher, I can perform a hypothesis test for a difference in proportions, which could prove that choosing high or low has an effect on the win percentage (assuming these cards are pulled from an infinite number of decks).

    Sig

  • PnB Evil_Hamster [794548]Evil_Hamster [794548]
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    Posted on 00:23:52 - 16/08/21 (2 months ago)
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    Hi,

    You're not salty, you're learning that code beats real life odds the hard way.

    If you had read some of the other posts in the gambling section you'll find that the casino is "biased" (heavily) towards the NPC and is tweaked every now and then accordingly.

    HI/Lo, Keno, Blackjack, Roulette are all in the games favor.

    You'll get some tin foil hat wearing person every now and then sprout up saying that some real life formula will work and they'll post a picture or some other crude drawing with cards on it for black jack or a roulette wheel stating real odds - but what you have to think is, its all code, there are no cards, there are no decks, no dice and no ball flying around a wheel. Its code that can be weighted.

    Its designed to take cash out of the game, many people have said this before and Im sure more will say it many times more.

    Keno has never been the same - I havent won more than 4 numbers now in 16 months - I play that daily and keep records and my win ratio in 16 months has gone from .51 to .41 - it got so bad I stopped donating earlier this year.

    Good luck with your merit though.
    Last edited by Evil_Hamster on 00:25:26 - 16/08/21

    #SorttheCasinostats

    Cleverly disguised to hide real figures..

    Formula for win ratio (or RTP) is wins/total tries.. NOT wins/loss..example 25 winning tickets in a 100 ticket draw on Torn would be tell you 33% of winning !! it isnt its 25%.

  • MMoM Sifumax [2671803]Sifumax [2671803]
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    Posted on 01:42:13 - 16/08/21 (2 months ago)
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    Evil_Hamster [794548]

    Hi,

    You're not salty, you're learning that code beats real life odds the hard way.

    If you had read some of the other posts in the gambling section you'll find that the casino is "biased" (heavily) towards the NPC and is tweaked every now and then accordingly.

    HI/Lo, Keno, Blackjack, Roulette are all in the games favor.

    You'll get some tin foil hat wearing person every now and then sprout up saying that some real life formula will work and they'll post a picture or some other crude drawing with cards on it for black jack or a roulette wheel stating real odds - but what you have to think is, its all code, there are no cards, there are no decks, no dice and no ball flying around a wheel. Its code that can be weighted.

    Its designed to take cash out of the game, many people have said this before and Im sure more will say it many times more.

    Keno has never been the same - I havent won more than 4 numbers now in 16 months - I play that daily and keep records and my win ratio in 16 months has gone from .51 to .41 - it got so bad I stopped donating earlier this year.

    Good luck with your merit though.
    Yep I have learned that, Statistically the odds change on how you play, so it's impossible to make the "right" move with Hi/Lo. It's 100% RNG at this point. I'm about 1400 games in with the closest being 24 and average around 9. After I get that merit I'm never touching the game again. 

    Even slots. got me like damn
  • MMoM Sifumax [2671803]Sifumax [2671803]
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    Posted on 17:58:57 - 19/08/21 (2 months ago)
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    qwee [1995502]

    If you tell me how many times you chose low and how many times you chose high on 6 and below and J or higher, I can perform a hypothesis test for a difference in proportions, which could prove that choosing high or low has an effect on the win percentage (assuming these cards are pulled from an infinite number of decks).
    I might start doing 75 tokens to each statistic like high on each number set and low on each # set to try and get a baseline to see how it actually plays out. I'll start a Google sheet soon and let put the info in there
  • IA2 icetraigh [2676196]icetraigh [2676196]
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    Posted on 20:12:03 - 14/09/21 (1 month ago)
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    This merit is ridiculous. 25 in a row?! Hell, they don't even have to go farther than 6 matches on Card Sharks, and they get to win REAL money! >:(
  • IBB Sterling [1616063]Sterling [1616063]
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    Posted on 20:42:22 - 20/09/21 (1 month ago)
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    Sifumax [2671803]

    After playing 1100 High low games chasing this merit, I've started to study the statistics. This is how the majority of my games end.

    6 And below has a 69% chance to be low when picking high
    J and higher has a
    63% chance to be High when I choose low

    But if we pull a Reverse Uno card.

    6 and below has an 86% chance to be high when picking low
    J and Higher has a 91% chance to be low when picking High



    Below are some Samples from today's study. Not all are included.
    ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
    You chose low on high-low (round #2) but your card was high (K vs A) so your $12 pot was lost
    You chose low on high-low (round #4) but your card was high (J vs Q) so your $16 pot was lost
    You chose low on high-low (round #2) but your card was high (K vs A) so your $12 pot was lost
    You chose low on high-low (round #3) but your card was high (Q vs A) so your $14 pot was lost
    You chose low on high-low (round #2) but your card was high (Q vs K) so your $12 pot was lost
    You chose low on high-low (round #2) but your card was high (Q vs A) so your $12 pot was lost
    You chose low on high-low (round #3) but your card was high (J vs Q) so your $14 pot was lost
    You chose low on high-low (round #14) but your card was high (Q vs K) so your $88 pot was lost
    You chose low on high-low (round #4) but your card was high (J vs Q) so your $16 pot was lost
    You chose low on high-low (round #5) but your card was high (J vs A) so your $19 pot was lost
    You chose low on high-low (round #1) but your card was high (J vs A) so your $10 pot was lost
    You chose low on high-low (round #1) but your card was high (J vs K) so your $10 pot was lost
    You chose low on high-low (round #8) but your card was high (K vs A) so your $31 pot was lost
    You chose low on high-low (round #4) but your card was high (Q vs K) so your $16 pot was lost
    You chose low on high-low (round #7) but your card was high (K vs A) so your $26 pot was lost
    You chose low on high-low (round #3) but your card was high (K vs A) so your $14 pot was lost
    You chose low on high-low (round #5) but your card was high (J vs Q) so your $19 pot was lost
    You chose low on high-low (round #3) but your card was high (J vs Q) so your $14 pot was lost
    You chose low on high-low (round #4) but your card was high (J vs A) so your $16 pot was lost
    =========================================================================
    You chose high on high-low (round #6) but your card was low (4 vs 2) so your $22 pot was lost
    You chose high on high-low (round #16) but your card was low (5 vs 2) so your $126 pot was lost
    You chose high on high-low (round #4) but your card was low (3 vs 2) so your $16 pot was lost
    You chose high on high-low (round #9) but your card was low (5 vs 2) so your $37 pot was lost
    You chose high on high-low (round #2) but your card was low (6 vs 2) so your $12 pot was lost
    You chose high on high-low (round #3) but your card was low (5 vs 2) so your $14 pot was lost
    You chose high on high-low (round #3) but your card was low (5 vs 3) so your $14 pot was lost
    You chose high on high-low (round #1) but your card was low (6 vs 4) so your $10 pot was lost
    You chose high on high-low (round #1) but your card was low (6 vs 2) so your $10 pot was lost
    You chose high on high-low (round #8) but your card was low (6 vs 4) so your $31 pot was lost
    You chose high on high-low (round #1) but your card was low (6 vs 4) so your $10 pot was lost
    You chose high on high-low (round #16) but your card was low (6 vs 4) so your $126 pot was lost
    You chose high on high-low (round #1) but your card was low (4 vs 2) so your $10 pot was lost
    You chose high on high-low (round #10) but your card was low (5 vs 3) so your $44 pot was lost
    You chose high on high-low (round #2) but your card was low (6 vs 2) so your $12 pot was lost
    You chose high on high-low (round #2) but your card was low (5 vs 3) so your $12 pot was lost
    You chose high on high-low (round #2) but your card was low (8 vs 4) so your $12 pot was lost
    You chose high on high-low (round #13) but your card was low (5 vs 2) so your $74 pot was lost
    You chose high on high-low (round #2) but your card was low (5 vs 4) so your $12 pot was lost
    You chose high on high-low (round #4) but your card was low (6 vs 4) so your $16 pot was lost
    You chose high on high-low (round #3) but your card was low (4 vs 3) so your $14 pot was lost
    You chose high on high-low (round #11) but your card was low (5 vs 2) so your $52 pot was lost
    You chose high on high-low (round #2) but your card was low (6 vs 4) so your $12 pot was lost
    You chose high on high-low (round #2) but your card was low (6 vs 3) so your $12 pot was lost
    -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------


    ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
    You chose low on high-low (round #8) but your card was high (5 vs 8) so your $31 pot was lost
    You chose low on high-low (round #8) but your card was high (5 vs 8) so your $31 pot was lost
    You chose low on high-low (round #1) but your card was high (5 vs J) so your $10 pot was lost
    You chose low on high-low (round #1) but your card was high (6 vs J) so your $10 pot was lost
    You chose low on high-low (round #1) but your card was high (5 vs K) so your $10 pot was lost
    =======================================================================
    You chose high on high-low (round #1) but your card was low (Q vs J) so your $10 pot was lost
    You chose high on high-low (round #7) but your card was low (Q vs 6) so your $26 pot was lost
    You chose high on high-low (round #1) but your card was low (Q vs J) so your $10 pot was lost
    You chose high on high-low (round #6) but your card was low (Q vs 4) so your $22 pot was lost
    You chose high on high-low (round #1) but your card was low (Q vs 2) so your $10 pot was lost
    You chose high on high-low (round #2) but your card was low (Q vs 7) so your $12 pot was lost
    You chose high on high-low (round #3) but your card was low (K vs 2) so your $14 pot was lost




    Obviously, I'm not a statistics major but, Let me know your thoughts. Is it rigged? Am I salty? How has your path gone towards the 25 in a row merit.
    Next time, I suggest including every time the deck was reshuffled, as that changes everything. 

    Analyzing high-low is not as straightforward as it sounds.

    I'm not slurring my words, I'm talking in cursive

  • TWC amosmc [2705919]amosmc [2705919]
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    Posted on 17:55:23 - 02/10/21 (25 days ago)
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    the deck reshuffles after every 20 cards
  • tBP CaReNzA [226380]CaReNzA [226380]
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    Posted on 21:07:23 - 02/10/21 (25 days ago)
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    Torn runs as far as its known runs on software RNG
    This means it will always have a strong bias, all software rng has

    Only if ched opens his pokets for some hardware RNG or subscribes a certified service can we get rid of the bias

    Since ched runns torn on unpaid slaves as staff for the most part we will never see that happen imo
    Last edited by CaReNzA on 21:07:58 - 02/10/21
  • NS Sniper [2166205]Sniper [2166205]
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    Posted on 04:54:57 - 14/10/21 (13 days ago)
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    This dang merit....
    http://imgur.com/a/s6jNqwr
    http://imgur.com/a/CEm3XmY
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