Do not "Shoot Twice" in R&R
  •   Cherub012 [2188314]Cherub012 [2188314]
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    Thread created on 23:28:38 - 11/11/18 (2 months ago)
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    Last replied 22:56:51 - 24/11/18 (1 month ago)

    I've done a bit of math (could be wrong), and it seems like if we were always shoot twice (unless it was down to the 5th and 6th chamber obviously), then we lose 5/9 times.

  • C.R Proxima [1879587]Proxima [1879587]
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    Posted on 23:48:45 - 11/11/18 (2 months ago)
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    Assuming an even distribution of bullets (which tbh, after 4 years of watching the stats, I'm not entirely convinced of), you will lose 7/12 on average.

     

  •   Cherub012 [2188314]Cherub012 [2188314]
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    Posted on 23:55:04 - 11/11/18 (2 months ago)
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    Proxima [1879587]

    Assuming an even distribution of bullets (which tbh, after 4 years of watching the stats, I'm not entirely convinced of), you will lose 7/12 on average.

    Ok well despite the differences in the odds - the conclusion is the same :P

  •   Cherub012 [2188314]Cherub012 [2188314]
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    Posted on 23:57:15 - 11/11/18 (2 months ago)
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    If you think about it - the game is very profitable in the long run too

    I will test this theory out and get back with some results (or not ;P)

    Last edited by Cherub012 on 23:58:03 - 11/11/18
  • C.R Proxima [1879587]Proxima [1879587]
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    Posted on 00:03:04 - 12/11/18 (2 months ago)
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    Cherub012 [2188314]

    If you think about it - the game is very profitable in the long run too

    I will test this theory out and get back with some results (or not ;P)

    I'll bet you my entire losses that it's not :-)

     

  • EQ2 Heigw [1962062]Heigw [1962062]
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    Posted on 00:10:25 - 12/11/18 (2 months ago)
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    Cherub012 [2188314]

    If you think about it - the game is very profitable in the long run too

    I will test this theory out and get back with some results (or not ;P)

    Proxima [1879587]

    I'll bet you my entire losses that it's not :-)

    Well I haven't played much RR at all, hardly any in fact, but I think i've probably come out on top.  It's a lot better for entertainment than it is for making money though.  

    Thanks to MysticBix for the signature.

    P.S.  If your reading this, turn Forums Signatures on!  It's in your settings!!!

  • C.R Proxima [1879587]Proxima [1879587]
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    Posted on 00:12:07 - 12/11/18 (2 months ago)
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    Cherub012 [2188314]

    If you think about it - the game is very profitable in the long run too

    I will test this theory out and get back with some results (or not ;P)

    Proxima [1879587]

    I'll bet you my entire losses that it's not :-)

    Heigw [1962062]

    Well I haven't played much RR at all, hardly any in fact, but I think i've probably come out on top.  It's a lot better for entertainment than it is for making money though.  

    Short term it can be profitable sure, long term it is by definition a zero-sum game. Again assuming no double shooting and a fair distribution of bullets.

    Most players play some variation of progressive betting, which means they end up broke plebs like myself. And thus very unprofitable.

     

  • 39th bacon [1668319]bacon [1668319]
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    Posted on 00:26:06 - 12/11/18 (2 months ago)
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    Cherub012 [2188314]

    If you think about it - the game is very profitable in the long run too

    I will test this theory out and get back with some results (or not ;P)

    Proxima [1879587]

    I'll bet you my entire losses that it's not :-)

    Heigw [1962062]

    Well I haven't played much RR at all, hardly any in fact, but I think i've probably come out on top.  It's a lot better for entertainment than it is for making money though.  

    Proxima [1879587]

    Short term it can be profitable sure, long term it is by definition a zero-sum game. Again assuming no double shooting and a fair distribution of bullets.

    Most players play some variation of progressive betting, which means they end up broke plebs like myself. And thus very unprofitable.

    But zero sum games can't be unprofitable... various startegies just have a difference variance and risk of going broke

  • BS JussiJernkuuk [1874922]JussiJernkuuk [1874922]
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    Posted on 12:26:04 - 12/11/18 (2 months ago)
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    If it's your turn to shoot on the second round you can shoot twice without changing the odds for the whole game. You will get the 2nd, 3rd and 5th rounds instead of 2nd, 4th and 6th. The same goes for the 4th round.

  •   Cherub012 [2188314]Cherub012 [2188314]
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    Posted on 17:08:55 - 12/11/18 (2 months ago)
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    JussiJernkuuk [1874922]

    If it's your turn to shoot on the second round you can shoot twice without changing the odds for the whole game. You will get the 2nd, 3rd and 5th rounds instead of 2nd, 4th and 6th. The same goes for the 4th round.

    Yes youre right

  •   Cherub012 [2188314]Cherub012 [2188314]
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    Posted on 17:10:13 - 12/11/18 (2 months ago)
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    Cherub012 [2188314]

    If you think about it - the game is very profitable in the long run too

    I will test this theory out and get back with some results (or not ;P)

    Proxima [1879587]

    I'll bet you my entire losses that it's not :-)

    Heigw [1962062]

    Well I haven't played much RR at all, hardly any in fact, but I think i've probably come out on top.  It's a lot better for entertainment than it is for making money though.  

    Proxima [1879587]

    Short term it can be profitable sure, long term it is by definition a zero-sum game. Again assuming no double shooting and a fair distribution of bullets.

    Most players play some variation of progressive betting, which means they end up broke plebs like myself. And thus very unprofitable.

    "Again assuming no double shooting"

    I'm not making that assumption :P

    I mean its profitable against players who shoot twice if they take the first shot.

    If you want to make some money from R&R - just make sure you open the game and only take one shot. Every time your opponent shoots twice, you are making money. The worst that can happen is that you'll (theoretically) break even.

    Last edited by Cherub012 on 17:11:53 - 12/11/18
  •   Cherub012 [2188314]Cherub012 [2188314]
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    Posted on 17:24:59 - 12/11/18 (2 months ago)
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    Okay so I looked at the overall stats. This is a lot more complicated than I thought...

     

  •   Krekeler [2106246]Krekeler [2106246]
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    Posted on 19:20:44 - 18/11/18 (2 months ago)
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    Every time you go second and your opponent does a double shot you have a 2/3 chance of winning meaning that you can get an edge, but not against anyone who does simple math, so in the long run you should make a profit, but your edge is only a third if your opponent double shots every time; it likely won't happen so I'd say the edge is between 1/15 to 1/30 if I had to hazard a guess, but if you were to bet 1% of your money per game you may make a profit. I still think that you could make more money through other things, but I'm broke so pay no mind to me.

  • PnB Sheyrak [2125456]Sheyrak [2125456]
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    Posted on 16:54:45 - 20/11/18 (2 months ago)
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    Krekeler [2106246]

    Every time you go second and your opponent does a double shot you have a 2/3 chance of winning meaning that you can get an edge, but not against anyone who does simple math, so in the long run you should make a profit, but your edge is only a third if your opponent double shots every time; it likely won't happen so I'd say the edge is between 1/15 to 1/30 if I had to hazard a guess, but if you were to bet 1% of your money per game you may make a profit. I still think that you could make more money through other things, but I'm broke so pay no mind to me.

    Double shot:

    1. 1:5 chance to lose:chance not to lose (1/6)

    2. 1:4 chance to lose:chance not to lose (1/5)

    I am not sure how you you came up with "Every time you go second and your opponent does a double shot you have a 2/3 chance of winning"

    Losing in the first shot should be ~16.66...7%, means those ~16.67% are a flat win for the person who'd go 2nd.

    A 2nd shot will be made in about 83.33% of the cases.

    Losing in the 2nd shot will be 20% (1/5).

    Means that the chance to lose by double-shooting as the starting player is 16,67 + 20 = 36.67. Which is a bit (~3.33%) more than 1/3.

    This is simple math. (I hope I didn't make a stupid mistake now, lol)

    So I simply don't see how you came up with 2/3.

    If you could indefinitely and time efficient farm people who double-shoot, this would be a better source of income than trading.

    Last edited by Sheyrak on 16:55:42 - 20/11/18
  •   Stubbs [2178001]Stubbs [2178001]
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    Posted on 20:41:57 - 20/11/18 (2 months ago)
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    Yes. Double shoot every time. Hell, triple shoot! Yes. Definitely do both of these things. Especially when you’re in a game vs me.

     

  • DC EzPz [1985070]EzPz [1985070]
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    Posted on 11:08:46 - 21/11/18 (2 months ago)
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    I'm in slight profit on RR, i never double click. 

  • C.R Proxima [1879587]Proxima [1879587]
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    Posted on 11:43:06 - 21/11/18 (2 months ago)
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    Krekeler [2106246]

    Every time you go second and your opponent does a double shot you have a 2/3 chance of winning meaning that you can get an edge, but not against anyone who does simple math, so in the long run you should make a profit, but your edge is only a third if your opponent double shots every time; it likely won't happen so I'd say the edge is between 1/15 to 1/30 if I had to hazard a guess, but if you were to bet 1% of your money per game you may make a profit. I still think that you could make more money through other things, but I'm broke so pay no mind to me.

    Sheyrak [2125456]

    Double shot:

    1. 1:5 chance to lose:chance not to lose (1/6)

    2. 1:4 chance to lose:chance not to lose (1/5)

    I am not sure how you you came up with "Every time you go second and your opponent does a double shot you have a 2/3 chance of winning"

    Losing in the first shot should be ~16.66...7%, means those ~16.67% are a flat win for the person who'd go 2nd.

    A 2nd shot will be made in about 83.33% of the cases.

    Losing in the 2nd shot will be 20% (1/5).

    Means that the chance to lose by double-shooting as the starting player is 16,67 + 20 = 36.67. Which is a bit (~3.33%) more than 1/3.

    This is simple math. (I hope I didn't make a stupid mistake now, lol)

    So I simply don't see how you came up with 2/3.

    If you could indefinitely and time efficient farm people who double-shoot, this would be a better source of income than trading.

    You're right in the sense that it is simple maths.

    If the person who shoots first shoots twice, and you don't, they will shoot 4 bullets on average (over many games). 4 out of 6 = 2/3. Simple.

     

  •   Krekeler [2106246]Krekeler [2106246]
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    Posted on 22:56:51 - 24/11/18 (1 month ago)
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    Krekeler [2106246]

    Every time you go second and your opponent does a double shot you have a 2/3 chance of winning meaning that you can get an edge, but not against anyone who does simple math, so in the long run you should make a profit, but your edge is only a third if your opponent double shots every time; it likely won't happen so I'd say the edge is between 1/15 to 1/30 if I had to hazard a guess, but if you were to bet 1% of your money per game you may make a profit. I still think that you could make more money through other things, but I'm broke so pay no mind to me.

    Sheyrak [2125456]

    Double shot:

    1. 1:5 chance to lose:chance not to lose (1/6)

    2. 1:4 chance to lose:chance not to lose (1/5)

    I am not sure how you you came up with "Every time you go second and your opponent does a double shot you have a 2/3 chance of winning"

    Losing in the first shot should be ~16.66...7%, means those ~16.67% are a flat win for the person who'd go 2nd.

    A 2nd shot will be made in about 83.33% of the cases.

    Losing in the 2nd shot will be 20% (1/5).

    Means that the chance to lose by double-shooting as the starting player is 16,67 + 20 = 36.67. Which is a bit (~3.33%) more than 1/3.

    This is simple math. (I hope I didn't make a stupid mistake now, lol)

    So I simply don't see how you came up with 2/3.

    If you could indefinitely and time efficient farm people who double-shoot, this would be a better source of income than trading.

    What I did was if you shoot second and they do a double shot on the first round they get the 1,2,4,and 6th chamber, which is 2/3 of the chambers, meaning that as long as there is an even distribution of bullets they will lose 2/3 of the time, giving you a 1/6th edge over them.