Betting Stuff w/Gunz
  • JUX -gunz- [984073]-gunz- [984073]
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    Posted on 16:20:08 - 22/08/18 (5 months ago)
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    Early games with no time for the whole spreadsheet process...

    • TOR
    • MIL
    • CHW

    I'll post more later.

  •   Admus [1280877]Admus [1280877]
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    Posted on 16:31:23 - 22/08/18 (5 months ago)
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    Waiting 

    I know I can (I know I can)
    Be what I wanna be (be what I wanna be)
    If I work hard at it (If I work hard it)
    I'll be where I wanna be (I'll be where I wanna be)

  • JUX -gunz- [984073]-gunz- [984073]
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    Posted on 17:34:46 - 22/08/18 (5 months ago)
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    Full card:

    MLB Game OS score & O/U CBS  picks +O/U public consensus SCP expert Gunz pick Risk lvl (gunz odds) plain language gunz thoughts
    Orioles @ Blue Jays TOR U9.5 BAL +1.5 O9.5 Toronto  67% TOR (Randy) TOR ** 60-70% TOR > BAL
    Reds @ Brewers MIL U9 CIN +1.5 O9 Milwaukee 66% OVR 9 (Chris) MIL *** 55-65% Reds = "that" team (always tough)
    Twins @ White Sox CHW U8.5 MIN +1.5 O8.5 Chi. White Sox 56% CHW (Andrew) CHW *** 50-60% looking for CHW to bounceback
    Rangers @ Athletics OAK U8.5 TEX +1.5 O8.5 Oakland 76% OAK (Randy) OAK * 70-80% Moneyball ownage
    Astros @ Mariners SEA U8 SEA +1.5 O8 Houston 67% HOU (Chris) SEA **** 50-55% SEA/HOU split, div race, SEA bounceback
    Braves @ Pirates PIT U8 ATL +1.5 O8 Atlanta 59% PIT (Mark) ATL *** 55-65% ATL playing good ball, but stumble some
    Phillies @ Nationals PHI U8.5 PHI +1.5 O8.5 Philadelphia 52% PHI (Andrew) PHI *** 50-60% WSH is still beatable, nice multi value
    Cubs @ Tigers CHC U9.5 DET +1.5 O9.5 Chi. Cubs   70 % CHC (Mark) CHC *** 50-60% they still both suck
    Indians @ Red Sox CLE U9 BOS +1.5 PUSH Boston 53% CLE (Chris) CLE **** 50-55% great teams, s/be close/hard game
    Royals @ Rays TB U7.5 KC +1.5 O7 Tampa Bay 67%  TBR (Randy) TBR ** 60-70% TBR settling into form after 1-0 game Monday
    Yankees @ Marlins NYY U7.5 MIA +1.5 O7.5 NY Yankees   74 % NYY (Andrew) NYY * 70-80% Seriously? Vs Marlins 2-1?
    Giants @ Mets NYM U7.5 SF +1.5 U7.5 NY Mets   76 % NYM (Mark) SFG **** 50-55% SFG bounceback, expect split series
    Padres @ Rockies COL U10.5 SD +1.5 U10.5 Colorado   75 % COL (Chris) COL *** 55-65% COL stumbled, expect them back in form tonight
    Angels @ D-backs ARI U8.5 LAA +1.5 O8.5 Arizona   73 % ARI (Andrew) ARI *** 55-65% expect another close one ARI edging out
    Cardinals @ Dodgers LAD U7.5 PUSH O7.5 St Louis  52% STL (Randy) STL *** 55-65% STL showing they can get it done vs LAD

     I was going to go back and score all the sources just to see how well they did with the HC and O/U picks.  I'm curious just so I know if it's even worth the copy/paste or even looking at them.  It's not a huge deal though considering we can't bet those here on torn, yet... (not even "soon").

    Plain list:

    TOR
    MIL
    CHW
    OAK
    SEA
    ATL
    PHI
    CHC
    CLE
    TBR
    NYY
    SFG
    COL
    ARI
    STL

    Only changes from yesterday are expecting CLE to continue beating up BOS, and expecting SFG and SEA to bounce back otherwise I still believe in the favorites that had bad games yesterday (COL, MIL, CHW, etc...)

    Last edited by -gunz- on 05:17:38 - 23/08/18
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    Posted on 16:49:57 - 23/08/18 (5 months ago)
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    Ugh, early games! 

    I'm going with:

    • PHI - They were SUPER close yesterday.  One homerun decided the game.
    • CLE - The Tribe has what it takes.  Can they bounce back?
    • SFG - Okay, this one is probably dumb.  SF took the first game, then dropped two.  This is probably the most iffy one.
    • CHW - These guys have been back and forth in the series so call it a coin flip.

    Yes, no chalk at all, and against the computer and experts on all of them.

    All risky, but I want to see some cash and I'm like 50% confidence that at least two of them can pull it off today!

    I'll probably put up a grid later

    Here are my other picks, got too much going on today to make a grid:

    • COL - Hard to bet against the Rockies @ mile high.  SDP took one the other day, but COL is the stronger team (by a good bit).
    • ATL - ATL coming off wins vs PIT, MIA took one away from NYY last night.  I can see both teams being pumped up. (if you're feeling risky it may not be a crazy gamble to take MIA in this coin flip).
    • TBR - KCR... yeah, no.  I mean, sure, MLB = crazy stuff happens... I can't see ever laying $ on KCR no matter how annoyed with MLB I might be.
    • CIN - Both CIN and CHC have been inconsistent on offense lately.  And for both clubs... when their offense fails, they loose.  This being a total coin flip means I'll take the higher odds please and thank you.  I'd rather take CIN +1.5 but that's not an option.
    • OAK - On paper both teams have good records recently (OAK 7-3, MIN 6-4).  Looking at who the wins have been against and you can see OAK is beating MUCH tougher teams (HOU, SEA... vs CHW, DET).  I would be pretty shocked if the Twins pull off more than one game in this series of 4.  I would consider OAK -1.5 or OVER for better odds, but again, not an option.
    Last edited by -gunz- on 17:12:09 - 23/08/18
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    Posted on 20:05:44 - 23/08/18 (4 months ago)
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    Morning pick turned out not too shabby... 2 up, 2 down... ~ 22% profit.  ATL brings the profit up to 28%.

    • PHI totally SHUT DOWN the Nats!  Lil revenge for yesterday's walk-off 
    • SFG took the final game 3-1 to even their series at 2-2 with NYM... I'll take it.
    • CLE did NOT have what it takes to bounce back.   They imploded in the 5th and gave up SIX after no scores at all in the first 4 innings. 
    • DET kinda had their way with CWS scoring 2 in the 4th, 3 in the 6th and 2 more in the 7th. Oh well 

    On to the afternoon games game!

    • COL with the walkoff 2 run homer! 

    Evening games:

    • ATL @ MIA
    • KCR @ TBR
    • CIN @ CHC
    • OAK @ MIN

    My evening longshot (CIN) didn't pay off and the Twins held on in a close one wiht the A's 

    Puts the evening games at -20% and the overall daily at ~ 8%.

    Last edited by -gunz- on 19:42:56 - 24/08/18
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    Posted on 21:29:41 - 24/08/18 (4 months ago)
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    Missed the morning game, and not a lot of time today either... so these are more gut calls... follow at your own peril 

    CBS computer is doing terrible so not gonna bother with it until I see it doing better: 

    SPREAD PICKS 
    812 - 928 - 0 (47%)
    OVER/UNDER PICKS 
    724 - 1016 - 0 (42%)
     
    Prob would have taken Reds again just for the odds value and the fact that they usually snag 1-2 games a series from better teams (it pays better than picking the fav for 3-4 games and missing 1-2 of them).
     
    Trying something new with + and - for heavy and lighter betting.  OFC it will probably bite me in the ass, lol!
     
    My picks are in bold *=risky, +=consider heavy bet - = bet lighter:
    • NYY @ BAL - Last time BAL split with NYY @ BAL.  They've actually split games with NYY all year long.  It's another case of getting 1.5 or 1.6 on NYY and missing it 1-2 times vs catching 2.5 or 2.6 on BAL 1-2 times.  Yes, NYY has a good team.  But the way they've been dropping games to shittier teams... I'll probably take BAL all four games.  I would consider BAL +1.5 but I'm looking to cash in on the high odds when they snag a game or two from the better team.
    • *-PHI @ TOR - OS and expert say PHI.  If I was betting with real world money... I would skip this one!  These two teams might as well be carbon copies.  They've both stolen games from better teams and have VERY similar records.  TOR took two of the three games in PHI and is coming off a 3 game owning against BAL.  Expert points out that TOR pitcher had a terrible outing last time out so I kinda think that might be enough to negate any home field advantage... screw it, half bet on PHI for this coin flip game :|
    • WSH @ NYM - This is a value bet all the way.  As long as the bookies keep giving me inflated odds against a 50/50 record team... I'll take them!  WSH has won more this year, but is so sporadic... I'm pretty sure they'll drop one or more up in NY.  Expert's quote is pretty funny and exactly my thoughts: This game depends on whether the Nationals team of the past several years shows up or the same inconsistent squad fighting to stay above .500 continues to take the field… (he pciks WSH, lol)
    • *-BOS @ TBR - Sometimes... I read the experts and they echo my thoughts so much it makes me wonder... Am I as good as them, or are they as goofy/crazy as me???  I’m going Boston, but value-picking the Rays here probably isn’t crazy. LOL!  Tampa has picked up at least one game in each series vs BOS (including the most recent series that started BOS's 3 game losing streak before they pulled out the last 2 @ CLE).  BOS split games with a tough CLE team, whereas TBR swept KCR (worst team in the league) and came close to dropping one of those games.  The bookies are giving TBR some respect though.  I think I'm going to half bet on BOS and see how game one goes before I think about chasing what lil value is on TBR right now.
    • ATL @ MIA - MIA did sneak a game from NYY and WSH, but those wins were more about those teams floundering and not so much about MIA being any good.  ATL has OWNED MIA this year 13-3.  Yes, there's a chance MIA may sneak in one game.  Yes there may be .02 more value in chasing that MIA win.  Considering ATL swept the last series 4-0, I'll be sticking with my Braves!
    • *CHW @ DET - Here’s these two teams so far this year: DDDDCDDDDDCCD… so, sure there’s a chance CHW will snag one of the three remaining games.  At 2.34 vs 1.70 you’d be looking at 1.34 payout vs 1.4 if you stick with DET and they drop one.  Makes it a coin flip really.  Sports writers tidbit:  The plus money with the White Sox is probably the side to be on given neither of these pitchers are good and Chicago has had more recent success. But based on the pitching issues, I'm going to make the over my pick. I don’t know if he’s thinking about in the longer term, but I agree 100% on the OVER being the better call.  I like seeing bigger payouts, so I’ll chase CHW. :)
    • PIT @ MIL - PIT has hit a rough patch lately, and MIL has played strong against some tough teams.  Computer calls it 2.1-1.7 in slight favor of PIT.  Expert likes MIL and I have to agree MIL is stronger at the moment.
    • OAK @ MIN - Did NOT expect the OAK loss last night... one of the more shocking losses this year, but hey... MLB is crazy like that.  Computer and expert and myself are all still favoring MONEYBALL!
    • +CLE @ KCR - KCR just got finished being abused by TBR, and CLE got in two solid games before the BOS juggernaut laid the smackdown on them for the second two.  Preeeeeeetty dang sure the woes are not over for KCR.  KCR has actually won 2 of the 9 games against CLE this year but they were 2-1 spilt series earlier in the year.  The last series was all CLE 3-0.  The way CLE played against BOS... I would call this one of the most lopsided games today.  For some crazy reason the computer says it will be a TIE??!? expert: All things considered here, this is the Indians’ game to take. Computer might need a reboot or something :P
    • *-STL @ COL - Ohhh MAN!  This is the game to WATCH, but not to bet! xD  Computer likes STL, expert is picking COL.  I'm inclined to go COL at home but they've shown a tendency to drop game one, and STL leads their games this year 1-3.  Smaller bet on STL just because I want to feel this series out for game one.
    • *SEA @ ARI - Computer and expert like the D-Backs... I have to admit... I think I like the D-Backs too. HOWEVER, the Mariners played the Astros REALLY HARD and I think they do have it in them to pick up a game, maybe two down in the sunshine.  I'm chasing the value here with SEA.  I'd have to admit it's a bit risky though.  YMMV
    • +HOU @ LAA - Computer, expert, and myself all like HOU.  HOU is 44-21 AWAY (33-29 @ home, way to stick it to your fans, LOL!)  I can't see LAA picking up any of these games barring crazy lucky MLB style weirdness.
    • SDP @ -LAD - Computer says Dodgers, expert says Dodgers -1.5.  The only counter I have is that SDP has snuck in wins against some much tougher teams... as well as LAD dropping games to crap teams.  I don't think today will be that day as the Dodgers look to come back from STL punching them in the mouth @ home last series!  I don't want to bet this one heavy until LAD shows that they're back in form.
    • TXR @ -SFG - Computer likes SF, expert likes SF, I would have said I like SF @ home because they USED to be tough at home.  They're both kinda struggling lately though.  I think I may lightly bet SFG and see how game one goes.

     

    Good luck!

    Last edited by -gunz- on 21:32:20 - 24/08/18
  •   Max_The_Silent [63064]Max_The_Silent [63064]
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    Posted on 04:21:31 - 25/08/18 (4 months ago)
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    Great Baseball! Are you looking at NCAA Football this season? I very much like your NFL outlooks.

  • JUX -gunz- [984073]-gunz- [984073]
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    Posted on 04:31:00 - 25/08/18 (4 months ago)
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    Max_The_Silent [63064]

    Great Baseball! Are you looking at NCAA Football this season? I very much like your NFL outlooks.

    I like to catch the odd ones here and there when I see interesting match-ups like when I see smaller teams from my home state (NC) go up against big schools (like when App State beat Michigan recently. 

  • JUX -gunz- [984073]-gunz- [984073]
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    Posted on 06:11:23 - 25/08/18 (4 months ago)
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    Away Home Result Winning Pitcher Losing Pitcher MLB.TV  
    Reds Cubs CIN 2, CHC 3 Chavez (4-2) Iglesias (2-2)  
    Yankees Orioles NYY 7, BAL 5 Green (7-2) Carroll (0-2)  
    Phillies Blue Jays TOR 4, PHI 2 Borucki (3-3) Arrieta (9-9)  
    Braves Marlins MIA 1, ATL 0 Straily (5-6) Foltynewicz (10-8)  
    Red Sox Rays TB 10, BOS 3 Beeks (3-1) Velazquez (7-2)  
    White Sox Tigers DET 3, CWS 6 Vieira (1-0) Jimenez (4-3)  
    Nationals Mets WSH 0, NYM 3 Vargas (4-8) Gonzalez (7-11)  
    Athletics Twins OAK 7, MIN 1 Manaea (12-9) Odorizzi (5-8)  
    Pirates Brewers PIT 6, MIL 7 Lyles (3-4) Holmes (1-3)  
    Indians Royals KC 5, CLE 4 Peralta (1-0) Allen (4-5)  
    Cardinals Rockies STL 7, COL 5 Martinez (7-6) Senzatela (4-4)  
    Mariners D-backs SEA 6, ARI 3 Ramirez (1-2) Godley (13-7)  
    Astros Angels LAA 3, HOU 9 Keuchel (10-10) Heaney (7-8)  
    Padres Dodgers SD 1, LAD 11 Hill (6-4) Richard (7-11)  
    Rangers Giants TEX 7, SF 6 Gearrin (2-1) Dyson (3-3)

     

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    Posted on 07:05:08 - 25/08/18 (4 months ago)
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    Notes about the turnout...

    • Cubs over Reds... meh... just shows how coin flip they are.  Glad I missed betting on them :)
    • Yanks over Orioles...  It was a really good back and forth battle that went an extra inning.  It'll be interesting to see what the split is in the double header tomorrow.  I will take another stab at BAL, just dunno if it'll be game 1 or 2, lol.
    • Blue Jays over Phillies... TOR was slow and steady offense. PHI actually had more hits (10-6) but left 8 stranded on base.  Prob stay with TOR tomorrow unless I see something crazy.
    • Marlins over Braves... Whatever.  Seriously.  The Braves only play good against tough teams, and then lose what should be easier games.  So much dissapoint.
    • Rays over Red Sox... Man!  What the heck is it with teams traveling to FL and just FLOPPING???  Two pitchers with really good records tomorrow, so who knows where the odds will end up at (they're not up on betfair yet)
    • White Sox over Tigers... LOL!  All of CHW's 6 pts came in the 8th.  I was pretty sure that one was a loss, but WOOT!
    • Moneyball over Twins... OAK kinda cruised @ 2-1 until the 8th and 9th scoring 5 runs just to run up the tally :D Love it!
    • Brewers over Pirates... WOW!!! 15 INNINGS!  What an insane game!  Gonna stop and add a picture for this one:
    • Royals over Indians... Okay, it's official, the tribe has collapsed!  KC lead off with a three run homer in the first, CLE clawed their way back to a 4-3 lead by the 8th, only to lose to a classic MLB plot twist... yep... 2 run walk-off home run. 
    • Cards over Rockies... the mile high magic wasn't enough to stop these red-hot cards.  Weird scoring spurts of 4, 3, and 5 runs in an inning (prob home runs, they happen a lot in the thin air, xD)... no scores in the last 4 innings though
    • Mariners over D-Backs... SEA showing they're not done yet xD  I may go with them tomorrow with LeBlanc on the mound.  Hopefully the bookies gimme good value xD
    • Astros over Angels... as expected... sucks we dont have HC bets cause I cant see LAA pulling off a win and Astros are going to keep giving 1.5 or 1.6 if we're lucky. :|
    • Dodgers over Padres... yeah... Dodgers are certainly back in form, lol!  They scored in SIX of the eight innings they batted! 
    • Rangers over Giants... Giants HAD THE LEAD 4-0, 6-0, 6-2... and then Rangers scored in the 7th, 8th, and 9th tying it up.  And then... Dyson (SF pitcher) SUCKED OUT (get it, Dyson, vacuum, bah, nevermind) and WALKED two batters INCLUDING walking in the winning run. W. T. F.

    That's MLB for you!

    I'll tally numbers tomorrow.  Pretty sure I'm up, but I'm fallin asleep now. 

    22% profit :)

    Last edited by -gunz- on 07:09:14 - 25/08/18
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    Posted on 16:11:16 - 25/08/18 (4 months ago)
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    Not really a set "pick"... just pointing out a fairly astounding factoid... 80% of the time MLB teams split double header games.

    NYY and BAL are playing a double header today.  BAL was VERY close to pulling off an upset last night:

    I'm still on the fence with value betting BAL for game one.  It's HARD to pass up on 3.75 odds, but I kinda have a feeling Happ (14-6) will be SOLID in game one.

    Which would mean 80% or better chance that BAL gets it done in game 2.  Currently it's BAL is at 2.75 odds for game 2.

    *** Note: if you look back far enough... the data evens out and becomes a 50/50 chance to sweep or not sweep.  I think the trend in recent years has to do with things like salary caps and more regulations keeping a lot more parity in the league.  I dunno... I didn't dive that deeply, but here's this year's double headers: http://www.espn.com/mlb/stats/doubleheaders only 6 out of 27 have been sweeps, and BOTH of NYY's were splits, and were against teams with not-so-great records (DET and KCR).

    So... be ready to bet the other way for game 2 :D

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    Posted on 16:27:08 - 25/08/18 (4 months ago)
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    Okay, I couldn't resist... I value bet on BAL for game one both games.  The odds keep dropping and I dunno if that's just cause of betting action, or if roster changes are causing concerns.  I will not have time today to keep tabs on who wins game one so I just locked in both since it would be shit for cash even if NYY wins (1.41 and 1.5 as of now)

    I'll post up the grid soon(tm).

    Last edited by -gunz- on 16:41:54 - 25/08/18
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    Posted on 17:54:06 - 25/08/18 (4 months ago)
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    Ugh, grid takes so long...

    Taking the Reds to continue chasing the value and they've actually gone 7-8 vs the Cubs this year always taking at least one game in a series (and sweeping the Cubs at home!).  Besides, crazy erratic pitchers and high run lines favor the underdog!

    Woot! More value!  Odds went up .1 w/24 min left to bet.

    Last edited by -gunz- on 17:56:56 - 25/08/18
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    Posted on 19:08:13 - 25/08/18 (4 months ago)
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    Away Home Time Away Pitcher Home Pitcher OS comp Pub Cons CBS comp Expert Yesterday Notes
    Yankees Orioles 1:05 PM Happ (14-6) Yacabonis (0-1) NYY 6.4-1.4 U9 71 NYY 60 O9 NYY -1.5 O9 NYY -1 (Mrk) NYY 7-5 Double header = split… watch this one to know how to bet game 2.
    Reds Cubs 2:20 PM Castillo (7-10) Quintana (10-9) CIN 5.6-2.8 U10 66 CHC 58 O10 CHC -0.0 U9.5 OVER (Mrk) CHC 3-2 "Both pitchers can look unbeatable and sometimes erratic so the question is which side do we see…"
    Rangers *# Giants 4:05 PM Perez (2-5) Suarez (4-9) TEX 5.9-5.8 O8.5 54 SFG 71 O8.5 TEX +1.5 O8.5 SF/O8.5 (And) TX 7-6 exp says: "I don’t really trust either of these pitchers, but I’ll take SF. The over may be better."  I'm think neither team gives a shit at this point.  Small value bet on home team.
    Nationals Mets 4:05 PM Roark (8-12) Wheeler (8-6) WSH 5.4-4.3 O7.5 51 WSH 55 O7.5 NYM +1.5 O7.5 NYM (Chr)  NYM 3-0 exp is going for NYM since they're hotter... I will probably bet against Nats vs anyone else for the rest of the season, LOL!
    Phillies Blue Jays 4:07 PM Pivetta (7-10) Sanchez (3-5) TOR 5-3.6 U9 64 PHI  59 U9

    TOR +1.5 O9

    PHI (And) TOR 4-2 exp ? PHI pitcher (bad last game) but backs them anyway.  I'm going to stick with the hotter TOR and the better odds!  Plus, I was a Blue Jays fan as a kid, lol! <3
    Red Sox Rays 6:10 PM Porcello (15-6) Yarbrough (12-5) BOS 4.3-3 U8.5 71 BOS 63 O8.5

    TB +1.5 O8.5

    BOS (Mrk) TB 10-3 "The Red Sox are not accustomed to being beat around and I think Saturday is revenge time…"  I would probably bet TB but the game isnt in the bookie to see what odds are
    ? # White Sox ? # Tigers 6:10 PM Giolito (9-9) Carpenter (1-1) CHW 4.8-4.1 U9.5 SPLIT 67 O9.5 DET +1.5 U9.5 CHW CWS 6-3 "Good luck trying to figure out which of these two struggling teams is going to come out on top" - Prob just pick the better odds in a small bet on this coin flip :|
    Yankees Orioles 7:05 PM Gray (9-8) Cashner (4-11) ** Same as G1 ** 73 NYY 75 O9 BAL +1.5 O9 NYY (And) NYY 7-5 exp believes NYY bats will carry them... I'm chasing value with BAL
    Braves # Marlins 7:10 PM Sanchez (6-4) Chen (4-9) MIA 4.4-3.6 O7.5 71 ATL O7.5 MIA +1.5 O7.5 ATL (Mrk) MIA 1-0 exp says braves rebound... This is the life of an ATL fan.  They lose shit they should win, and then win shit they should lose. Sigh. **** you Jobu, I value bet the Marlins with a small bet and hope it motivates my Braves to win!
    Athletics Twins 7:10 PM Fiers (9-6) Gonsalves (0-1) OAK 8.4-0.7 U9.5 73 OAK 60 U9.5 MIN +1.5 O9.5 OAK (Chr) OAK 7-1 LOL! "Oakland has been pretty much money " MONEYBALL!!!  I can't see betting against OAK... maybe against HOU, even then idk :P
    Pirates Brewers 7:10 PM Taillon (9-9) Chacin (13-4) MIL 5.6-3.2 O8.5 59 MIL 56 U8.5 PIT +1.5 U8.5 MIL (Rdy) MIL 7-6 exp favors Chacin who has been SOLID.  I'm on board with that.  PIT has been floundering lately too.
    Indians Royals 7:15 PM Kluber (16-6) Fillmyer (1-1) CLE 4.7-4 O8.5 72 CLE 58 O8.5 CLE -1.5 O8.5 CLE -1.5 KCR 5-4

    exp says CLE pitching ****ed up yesterday... Klu has a great record.  Too bad Torn bookie has such shitty odds.  Reg bet on CLE.  Risky people might consider double bet on CLE. or hell... value bet on KCR getting lucky again :P

    Mariners D-backs 8:10 PM LeBlanc (7-3) Ray (3-2) ARI 4.3-4.1 U8.5 57 ARI 61 O8.5 SEA +1.5 U8.5 ARI (And) SEA 6-3 exp: ARI pitcher is better.  My thoughts are: SEA is fightin' for wildcard (4 games beind OAK)  ARI is trying to stay ahead of a cold COL team and maybe NLCS home field.
    Cardinals Rockies 8:10 PM Gant (5-5) Marquez (11-9) COL 4.7-3.9 U11 51 STL 58 U11 STL +1.5 U11 STL (Rdy) STL 7-5 "Hard not to like the Cardinals and the plus money."  I do like COL esp at home, but the Cards are more like a Phoenix lately (on fire)
    Astros Angels 9:07 PM Verlander (12-8) Barria (8-7) LAA 5.1-3.1 O8 72 HOU 65 U8

    LAA +1.5 O8

    HOU (Rdy) HOU 9-3 Verlander = solid and Astros bats are acitve again... no way I'm going against healthy HOU
    * ## Padres Dodgers 9:10 PM Kennedy (0-2) Kershaw (6-5) LAD 8.3-1.2 O7.5 70 LAD 67 O7.5

    LAD -1.5 O7.5

    LAD -1.5 (Rdy) LAD 11-1 exp "fading" the Padres… I thought fading was only done against the favorite? Guess ya learn something new every day, lol! Just for giggles, I'm 1/4 betting on the Padres (fading the expert, LOL!)

    * = risky  # = smaller bet

    Last edited by -gunz- on 19:26:24 - 25/08/18
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    Posted on 06:06:47 - 26/08/18 (4 months ago)
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    Away Home Today Yesterday Comments
    Yankees Orioles NYY 10, BAL 3 NYY 7-5 Yep, Happ kicked ass…
    Reds Cubs CIN 6, CHC 10 CHC 3-2 Chasing Reds is is getting old :|
    Rangers *# Giants TEX 3, SF 5 TX 7-6 Giants pulled it off, LOL!
    Nationals Mets WSH 0, NYM 3 NYM 3-0 Nats… apparently it was the later option (the team that can't keep above .500 showed up)
    Phillies Blue Jays TOR 8, PHI 6 TOR 4-2 Yay Blue Jays
    Red Sox Rays TB 5, BOS 1 TB 10-3 OFC this one never made it into B2.0 damnit
    ?#W Sox ? # Tigers DET 1, CWS 6 CWS 6-3 White Sox ownin the pussy (cats) (never showed up in B2.0)
    Yankees Orioles NYY 5, BAL 1 NYY 7-5 NYY slacked off, BAL just didn't have anything
    Braves # Marlins MIA 3, ATL 1 MIA 1-0 These FL teams messing with my joy >:[
    Athletics Twins OAK 6, MIN 2 OAK 7-1 A's kickin names and takin ass xD
    Pirates Brewers PIT 9, MIL 1 MIL 7-6 Not so solid I guess
    Indians Royals KC 7, CLE 1 KCR 5-4 CLE has apparently fallen apart
    Mariners D-backs SEA 4, ARI 3 SEA 6-3 Look at the Mariners pushing hard core
    Cardinals Rockies STL 1, COL 9 STL 7-5 Seriously… no one is consistent
    Astros Angels LAA 3, HOU 8 HOU 9-3 Yay, Astros = consistent… bleh
    *# Padres Dodgers SD 4, LAD 5  SD 1, LAD 11 Padres allllmost pulled it off… till someone threw a breaker (they had a power outtage, lol)

    Not the greatest day... if you followed what I said and (not what I actually DID, lol) and bet NYY game one then ya may have turned profit today thanks to M*3 (Mets Mariners, Marlins).  I came very close to even because I broke more of my own rules and bet heavy on the Astros when I saw BAL was going tits up 

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    Posted on 16:12:49 - 26/08/18 (4 months ago)
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    Todays info grid:

    Away Home Away Pitcher Home Pitcher OS comp Pub Cons CBS comp Expert Saturday's game Friday's game Thursday's game
    Phillies Blue Jays Velasquez (8-9) Estrada (7-9) TOR U9 59 PHI 65 O9 TOR +1.5 O9 Phillies need this game badly. I'll take them and the cheap price. TOR 8, PHI 6 TOR 4, PHI 2 n/a
    Braves Marlins Gausman (8-9) Lopez (2-3) ATL U7.5 67 ATL 55 O7.5 MIA +1.5 O7.5 I think the Braves can get it again here. MIA 3, ATL 1 MIA 1, ATL 0 MIA 0, ATL 5
    Red Sox Rays Eovaldi (5-5) Snell (15-5) TBR O7 53 BOS 55 O7 BOS +1.5 O7 I’ll lay juice with Tampa Bay & their ace pitching. TB 5, BOS 1 TB 10, BOS 3 n/a
    White Sox Tigers Kopech (0-0) Zimmermann (6-5) DET U8.5 52 DET 57 O8.5 DET +1.5 O8.5 The over has been money maker w/Zimmermann faces the White Sox DET 1, CWS 6 DET 3, CWS 6 n/a
    Nationals Mets Rodriguez (1-1) Matz (5-10) WSH O8.5 51 WSH 53 O8.5 WAS +1.5 U8.5 This isn’t at the top of my list in games to bet. (Nats) WSH 0, NYM 3 WSH 0, NYM 3 n/a
    Athletics Twins Bassitt (2-3) Berrios (11-8) OAK U9 52 MIN 54 O9 OAK +1.5 PUSH I'll take the A's and the favorable price. OAK 6, MIN 2 OAK 7, MIN 1  OAK 4, MIN 6
    Pirates Brewers Archer (4-6) Anderson (8-7) MIL O8.5 SPLIT 61 O8.5 PIT +1.5 O8.5 Brewers have also been playing the better. Brewers to win the set on Sunday. PIT 9, MIL 1 PIT 6, MIL 7 n/a
    Indians Royals Bieber (7-2) Lopez (0-3) CLE U9.5 68 CLE 58 O9.5 CLE -1.5 U9.5 All things considered here, this should be the Indians’ game to take. KC 7, CLE 1 KC 5, CLE 4 n/a
    Reds Cubs Bailey (1-11) Hendricks (9-10) CHC U10 69 CHC O10 CHC -0.0 U10 I’ll back the Cubs on the run line as I think Chicago rolls to a sweep here. CIN 6, CHC 10 CIN 2, CHC 3 CIN 1, CHC 7
    Cardinals Rockies Gomber (3-0) Anderson (6-6) STL U11 57 STL 60 U11 STL +1.5 U11 Give me the value of the Cardinals. STL 1, COL 9 STL 7, COL 5 n/a
    Rangers Giants Gallardo (7-2) Holland (6-8) TEX O8.5 54 TEX 64 O8.5 TEX +1.5 O8.5 I’ll take a chance with the Rangers who are a pesky bunch… TEX 3, SF 5 TEX 7, SF 6 n/a
    Astros Angels Valdez (1-0) Pena (1-3) HOU U9 59 HOU 57 O9 LAA +1.5 O9 That said, I’m jumping on the Valdez bandwagon and taking the Astros. LAA 3, HOU 8 HOU 9, LAA 3 n/a
    Padres Dodgers Erlin (3-3) Ryu (3-1) LAD U8 66 LAD 53 U8 LAD -1.5 U8 I can’t find a lot of reasons not to think LA will win. SD 4, LAD 5 SD 1, LAD 11 n/a
    Mariners D-backs Leake (8-7) Greinke (12-8) ARI U8 60 ARI U8 SEA +1.5 O8 I’ll lay the juice with the Diamondbacks to salvage a win here. SEA 4, ARI 3 SEA 6, ARI 3 n/a
    Yankees Orioles Severino (16-6) Bundy (7-12) NYY U8.5 71 NYY 66 O8.5 BAL +1.5 O8.5 Yankees and the RL seems to be the only option here. NYY 10, BAL 3 and NYY 5, BAL 1 NYY 7, BAL 5 n/a
    Last edited by -gunz- on 16:17:26 - 26/08/18
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    Posted on 16:52:20 - 26/08/18 (4 months ago)
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    Today's picks (*=risky #=half bet):

    Color code

    • RED = missed bet
    • ORANGE = missed risky bet 
    • LIME = correct risky bet
    • GREEN = correct bet

     

    • TOR - PHI has shown signs of life but TOR seems to have the edge in this series.
      • Phillies 8, Blue Jays 3
    • ATL - I think I'd rather bet MIA +1, but not an option.
      • Braves 4, Marlins 0
    • TBR - Has the better pitcher and has been on FIRE lately (8-2 in last 10)
      • Red Sox 1, Rays 9
    • CHW - computer keeps picking DET, but they've showed NO signs of life.
      • White Sox 7, Tigers 2
    • NYM - Nats have been terrible, Mets have been okay (3-0 for two games isn't owning them) screw the inconsistent NATS, I still made lots of cash off them sucking!
      • Nationals 15, Mets 0 (can you say pitching IMPLOSION?)
    • *PIT - Not sure what "better ball" the expert is talking about.  These two are a coin filp, so I'll take the value.
      • Pirates 4, Brewers 7 (couple HR = all the difference... yay MLB)
    • *OAK - Twins are no slouches, but Moneyball has been on a roll.  This is another coin flip of a game 
      • Athletics 6, Twins 2
    • *KCR - CLE had better pitcher yesterday... still... tits up.  KCR decided to nut up this series? Good multi, why not?
      • Indians 12, Royals 5 (bats woke up... must have used the live chicken xD)
    • *#CIN - Half bet on the Reds because... why stop chasing them now? xD  CHC = safer bet, but terrible multi
      • Reds 0, Cubs 9
    • *STL - Yes, COL blew up last night... STL still has a lot of value.  Truthfully, this is a coin flip as well.
      • Cardinals 12, Rockies 3 (wow!)
    • *TEX - Rangers have the better pitcher, but yes, another coin flip.
      • Rangers 1, Giants 3 (tight game, as expected, sigh, figures when I quit picking SFG)
    • HOU - Interestingly decent odds for what I believe to be one of the most clinch games today.
      • Astros 3, Angels 1 (closer than I expected with a 2-0 pitcher going against 1-4 pitcher)
    • *SEA - Come on Mariners, make daddy just a LITTLE more cash.  Yes, risky/coin flip.
      • Mariners 2, D-backs 5 (close, well fought game and series from the Mariners)
    • *#SDP - Yes, chasing the fluke for high odds... LAD @ 1.43 = safe, boring, and pointless.
    • *#BAL - Yeah, why stop? Same as above... NYY @ 1.31 = safe, etc...

    Made a too many risky picks and didn't have enough of them come through today.

    Hopefully y'all read my comments and pay attention to what I saw as risky longshots and did better than Mr. Fearless here 

    Last edited by -gunz- on 19:09:09 - 27/08/18
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    Posted on 20:31:33 - 27/08/18 (4 months ago)
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    "Quick" (no full grid, but still researched) list for today:

    Pick (risk level)

    • WSH @ PHI : * PHI (risky, 50/50)
      • I'm not comfortable with either really. I would only picking PHI because WSH has been getting shut COMPLETELY down more and the odds on PHI are a little better.
      • Both teams had offensive explosions in the last game of their previous series.
      • Both teams have been playing like crap most of the time and only win with enough lucky offense (HRs)
    • TOR @ BAL : TOR (90% may be the least risky call today)
      • TOR just came off a series where they made PHI look like crap (except last game, PHI had more HR to win).
      • TOR swept three in a row vs BAL last series and leads this year against BAL 12-1.
      • BAL... man... they barely clung to within 2 runs in to of the 4 games vs NYY... even when NYY looked like shit.
      • Expert has nothing nice to say about BAL, and, well, yeah... he's right xD
    • CHW @ NYY : ** CHW (I'd say mayybe 33% chance CHW pulls it off)
      • Yeah yeah NYY coming off a sweep of BAL... that's like a jock bragging about beating up a wimpy kid.
      • Computer likes CHW, public is of course behind NYY (and surprisingly betting UNDER)
      • Expert says: It’s been a nice run for Rodon lately; he’s sitting on eight straight quality starts, allowing more than two runs just once in that span (three earned in Detroit on August 15; still a win). Rodon is 4-0 in that time and hasn’t lost a game since June 30. This might be a good spot to sneak in a Sox value pick.  As if I need an excuse to bet against NYY :P  
      • Note: NYY  pitcher, Tanaka, is 9-4 UNDER 9.5 may be the correct call here. (not that it matters in Torn)
    • NYM @ CHC : CHC (90% close battle with TOR for least risk today)
      • Computer says Cubs and UNDER 10.5.  Cubs are 4-0 against NYM this year.
      • Both pitchers have good records.  Cubs have the better overall record and are 42-23 @ home.
      • NYM took advantage of the floundering Nats, but never scored more than 3 (only > 5 in 3 of their last 10 games) 
    • OAK @ HOU : * OAK (risky 50/50)
      • Man, oh man... another one I'd probably avoid.  The computer likes OAK and UNDER.  Public is 57% HOU and amazingly 67% UNDER (the public LOVES to bet OVER normally... scroll back and look xD)
      • Expert thinks this will be a good series and thinks OAK may draw first blood.
      • HOU... It's the Astros... you should never be comfy betting against them, lol!  HOU is 7-3 (two of those to OAK) and 80-50 on the year.  Interesting note: HOU is 33-29 @ home vs 47-21 away. sooo... 50-50 shot?
      • OAK... Moneyball = on fire too. OAK is 18-6 since their last L streak in COL (one of those losses to HOU) and 79-53 for the year, 40-26 away and 39-26 @ home.
      • HOU has had some rough spots later in the season (still playing well, just not uber dominant) they'lost like 10 of their last 23 including being SWEPT 0-4 at home by Seattle (OAK went 2-1 in their last SEA series)
      • This year: OAK 6 HOU 10... HOU owned the early half  (8-1) but OAK has done better the second half (5-2).
    • COL @ LAA : COL (70-80%)
      • Computer likes COL by a 6-0 margin (UNDER 8), public is 67% COL and 60% OVER (go figure)
      • Expert: Colorado is in hot pursuit of first in the NL West and Gray has been one of the reasons…
      • COL 71-59 and 7-3 recently, LAA 63-68 is 2-8 recently.
      • LAA being close to a 500 record is the only reason I hesitate to call this one like 80-90% in favor of COL
    • ARI @ SFG : ARI (60-70%) edit
      • Computer calls ARI by 8-1 margin ((OVER 7.5), public is 69% ARI and 59% OVER
      • The Diamondbacks are still clinging to the top spot in the NL West and need this one badly. I prefer Corbin a bit more in this matchup… (Corbin = ARI pitcher w/10-5 record).  ARI is 7-3 with the only blemish being SEA snagging 2 games
      • SFG is a .500 team that does do better at home (36-27 vs 29-40) but has been "meh" lately (4-6)
      • edit: SF actually LEADS this year 9-7 including a three game sweep in late June and a split series earlier in Aug (both @ ARI).  I still think I lean a little more toward ARI for this game, but can see this series being split, easily.

    Good luck, pick your risk level and bet within your comfort zone 

    edit with more info on SF/ARI

    Last edited by -gunz- on 20:49:39 - 27/08/18
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    Posted on 22:34:23 - 27/08/18 (4 months ago)
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    FYI... Something keeps nagging me about ARI/SF... I still think ARI may be the safer bet (slightly), but in the process of digging deeper I found a few odd tidbits of data...

    Since the All-Star break...

    • Only 8 of SF's 20 losses came to pitchers with winning records.
      • One of those losses (Aug 3rd) was to Corbin... get this... w/Stratton on the mound for SF (same as tonight!)
      • Corbin has been credited with two more wins since then.  Stratton hasn't started since that game @ ARI.
    • Only 3 of SF's 15 wins came against pitchers with winning records.
      • One of those wins (Aug 4th) was @ ARI against Greinke who was 12-6 at that time.
      • That was the day after they lost to Corbin!
    • The rest of SF's wins and losses were against pitchers that were at or near .500 (IE 3-4, 8-8, etc...)

    I guess that does make me a little more comfy going with ARI tonight... hopefully ARI really SMOKES them (more than the 6-3 win last time) and really drives up the odds for tomorrows bounce-back xD

    Last edited by -gunz- on 22:39:35 - 27/08/18
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    Posted on 02:06:02 - 28/08/18 (4 months ago)
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    New plan...

    put money on the opposite of everything gunz says...

    TOR (90% may be the least risky call today)”

    I seriously can’t stop laughing... it’s so ridiculous