Betting Stuff w/Gunz
  • JUX -gunz- [984073]-gunz- [984073]
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    Posted on 18:57:19 - 15/08/18 (5 months ago)
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    Actually... my picks yesterday were 12-3

    Turns out, my picks were 10-5.  I miss-clicked, or changed my mind when placing bets and bet TOR instead of KCR, and BAL instead of NYM.  So... good for me right?  Not so much.  Bookie 2.0 appears to have miss-handled those two games and paid incorrectly.  So I dunno if those changes will pay off or not.  LOL!

    Edit: I was confused by the green highlighting... sigh... such an airhead :P

    Also, no time for a full card today (too much RL stuff on top of the messed up bookie stuff).

    Sucks cause I was on a roll... eh... maybe I can catch a few later games. We'll see.

    Last edited by -gunz- on 23:22:53 - 15/08/18
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    Posted on 22:35:46 - 15/08/18 (5 months ago)
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    Went mostly chalk for the early stuff:

    • Milwaukee (J Guerra) - not chalk, they didn't repeat
    • Boston (N Eovaldi)
    • Cleveland (S Bieber)
    • NY Yankees (L Cessa)
    • NY Mets (Z Wheeler)
    • Atlanta (K Gausman)

    Now, the later games get interesting:

    • Colorado @ Houston
      • OS computer likes Houston today.  It was correct with Colorado yesterday,
      • "I got burned with the Astros on Tuesday, as Houston just couldn’t get on the board against Marquez, so the plus money with the hotter team in Colorado is definitely worth a look considering Cole has taken the loss in each of his last three starts. However, I clearly don’t learn my lesson as I just think Houston is too talented of a team to keep sliding like this. Anderson hasn’t gotten the win in his last six starts, with the Rockies losing five of them, so while it’s a risky move, I’ll side with Houston to bounce back with a statement win by a couple of runs on Wednesday.
      • I'm gonna stick with the mountain men and go against the computer and the sports writer.  It's too good of a multi on too hot of a team to not take a shot at the Rockies riding the momentum.
    • Washington @ St. Louis
      • Computer likes STL
      • Expert likes STL
      • Same as yesterday... until I see signs of like from the Nats... I ain't betting on them.
    • Toronto @ Kansas City
      • Computer likes TOR
      • Expert likes TOR
      • Chalk it is... :P
    • LA Angels @ San Diego
      • Computer likes SDP
      • Expert says: "I know Pena still looks a bit shaky, but I’m not sure why the Padres are favoured against anybody right now. Sure, the Padres have won both of Erlin’s starts since rejoining the starting rotation, but the fact is that going against the Padres this season has made you more money than you’ve lost probably, and this time is no different. I’ll gladly take the plus money with the Angels in this spot."
      • Angles spanked them pretty soundly last night...  I haven't seen too much bounce-back from the Padres so, Angels it is.
    • San Francisco @ LA Dodgers
      • Computer is calling it 4-5 Dodgers
      • Expert says: The Giants have been money making machines for us in the first two games of the set, so the plus money is worth a look. However, Holland has allowed 12 runs, nine earned, in 13.1 innings against the Dodgers this season and was touched up for five runs, four earned, in his last start. On the other hand, I’m not trying to lay heavy juice with a Dodgers team that has been outplayed in the first two games of the set and in all honesty, who knows what we are going to see from Ryu in his first start in over three months. Seems like a good spot to side with the over in my opinion.
      • I agree with him, but according to Ched we wont see over/under in Bookie 2.0 for a while (IE, not even "soon") :|  So, I'm gonna chase the cash and the Giants momentum.

    FYI... the Giants/Dodgers game went 12 innings and pretty much saw the Giants bullpen run out of steam when the Dodgers closing pitcher was still firing in NINETY EIGHT MPH fastballs! 

    I can't even be mad at such amazing efforts!

    .

    Oh, something pathetic like 8% profit from such a xmas tree colored card :|

    Last edited by -gunz- on 19:46:52 - 16/08/18
  • JUX -gunz- [984073]-gunz- [984073]
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    Posted on 19:39:13 - 16/08/18 (5 months ago)
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    New format... much quicker to fill out this way.

    Game TB2 odds  TB2 odds  OS comp OS con SCP expert gunz pick Reasoning
    Rays @ Yankees TBR 2.54 NYY 1.62 TBR 5-2 NYY 53% NYY (Mark) NYY NYY = better team @ home
    Mets @ Phillies NYM 2.28 PHI 1.64 PHI 9-1 PHI 61% NYM (Mark) PHI PHI = 39-19 @ home, NYM 27-30 away
    Cubs @ Pirates CHC 1.91 PIT 2.06 PIT 7-4 CHC 58% OVER 8 (Mark) PIT PIT lil better @ home, can't bet OVER
    Nationals @ Cardinals WSH 1.5 STL 1.81 STL 6-5 WSH 51% STL (Randy) STL WSH = strugglin! STL 32-26 @ home
    Rockies @ Braves COL 1.94 ATL 2.02 COL 5-2 COL 52% ATL (Randy) ATL gunz=ATL fan, ATL lil better @ home
    Mets @ Phillies NYM 1.90 PHI 1.55 PHI 9-1 PHI 69% PHI (Randy) *** dbl header spilt 80%, bet G1 loser!
    Angels @ Rangers LAA 2.04 TXR 1.87 LAA 5-4 LAA 52% LAA (Randy) LAA LAA = hotter @ 7-3, TXR = 4-6
    Tigers @ Twins DET 2.5 MIN 1.64 MIN 6-4 MIN 59% OVER 9 (Chris) MIN MIN = 35-24 @ home, can't bet OVER
    Blue Jays @ Royals TBJ 1.76 KCR 2.26 KCR 4-2 TOR 65% OVER 9 (Chris) TOR TOR =  better team, can't bet OVER
    D-backs @ Padres ARI 1.73 SDP 2.3 ARI 4-2 ARI 69% ARI (Chris) ARI ARI = much better team

    Scores:

    • OS computer: 6-4
    • OS betting consensus: 6-4
    • SCP experts: 4-6
    • gunz: 3-7

    Bleh 

    Last edited by -gunz- on 17:18:35 - 17/08/18
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    Posted on 19:23:18 - 17/08/18 (5 months ago)
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    Today's card (with BONUS NFL crap):

    Note for TOR and TRB... those are risky bets trying to capture the odds value on teams that have shown they CAN beat tougher teams!  I'm actually also tempted to bet on MIA over WSH for the similar reason... WSH has been THAT shitty this year that MIA has more of a shot than the odds show (currently 4.3 on MIA).

    .

    MLB Game OS comp OS comp OS cons OS cons SCP expert Gunz Gunz Last 10 (Season) - and extra info
    Mets @ Phillies PHI 3-5 OVR 7.5 PHI 52% UND 56% NYM (Andrew) NYM OVR NYM 6-4 (52-68) PHI 4-6 (67-54) - split dbl hdr yest
    Cubs @ Pirates CHC 6-2 OVR 8 CHC 55% UND 58% CHC (Randy) CHC UND CHC 6-4 (70-50) PIT 4-6 (61-61) - CHC won yest 1-0
    Marlins @ Nationals WSH 3-7 OVR 8 WSH 70% OVR 51% WSH -1.5 (Randy) WSH OVR MIA 2-8 (48-75) WSH 3-7 (61-61) - WSH signs of life?
    Blue Jays @ Yankees NYY 3-5 UND 9 NYY 58% UND 53% NYY (Andrew) *TOR UND TOR 4-6 (55-66) NYY 6-4 (75-46) - NYY dropped 2 to TB!
    Orioles @ Indians CLE 2-8 OVR 9 CLE 69% OVR 62% CLE (Andrew) CLE OVR BAL 3-7 (36-85) CLE 8-2 (69-51) - Tribe playing strong!
    Giants @ Reds CIN 2.8-2.9 UND 9.5 SFG 52% UND 54% SFG (Mark) SFG UND SFG 5-5 (61-61) CIN 3-7 (52-69) - SF went 2-1 vs LAD!
    Rays @ Red Sox TBR 3.2-3 UND 9.5 BOS 68% UND 55% OVR 9 (Mark) *TBR OVR TB 6-4 (62-59) BOS 8-2 (86-36) - hard to bet vs BOS!
    Rockies @ Braves ATL 2-4 UND 8.5 ATL 59% UND 56% ATL (Mark) ATL UND COL 6-4 (65-56) ATL 7-3 (68-52) - COL won yest 5-3... looking for ATL bounce back
    Angels @ Rangers LAA 4-3 UND 11 TEX 53% OVR 68% TEX (Randy) TEX OVR LAA 7-3 (62-61) TEX 5-5 (54-69) - TEX won yest 8-6
    Tigers @ Twins MIN 2-3 UND 8.5 MIN 59% OVR 53% MIN -1.5 (Randy) MIN OVR DET 3-7 (50-72) MIN 5-5 (57-63) - MIN won yest 15-8
    Royals @ White Sox CHW 2.8-3.3 UND 9 CHW 57% UND 55% CHW (Andrew) CHW UND KCR 3-7 (37-84) CHW 4-6 (44-76) - poop fest
    Brewers @ Cardinals STL 2-4 UND 8 MIL 51% OVR 60% STL (Andrew) STL OVR MIL 4-6 (68-55) STL 8-2 (66-56) - STL = hot streak
    Astros @ Athletics OAK 1.6-2.4 UND 8 OAK 53% UND 56% OAK (Mark) OAK UND HOU 4-6 (74-47) OAK 7-3 (72-49) - OAK lost first 3 series, went 3-1 in last series
    D-backs @ Padres SDP 2-4 UND 7.5 ARI 69% OVR 60% ARI (Randy) ARI UND ARI 5-5 (67-55) SDP 4-6 (48-76) - ARI won yest 5-1
    Dodgers @ Mariners SEA 2-3 UND 8 SEA 56% UND 61% SEA (Mark) SEA UND LAD 4-6 (65-57) SEA 6-4 (70-52) - SEA woke back up?

    .

    NFL Game OS comp OS comp OS cons OS cons SCP expert Gunz Gunz Comments
    Giants @ Lions DET (-3) OVR 40 DET 57% UND 56% NYG +3 (Randy) DET OVR screw NYG! (I dislike Eli and can't stand OBJ)
    " " " " " NYG +3 (Andrew) " " "
    Chiefs @ Falcons ATL (+2.5) OVR 42 KC 57% split O/U KC +2.5 (Chris) KC OVR preseason, no comments
    Saints @ Cardinals NO (-4) UND 41.5 NO 58% OVR 60% NO -3.5 (Andrew) NO OVR Thinks both teams = feeling out newbs, but NO = better newbs
    Dolphins @ Panthers CAR (-3)  OVR 43 CAR 51% OVR 52% CAR -3 (Randy) CAR OVR CAR DEF > MIA newb QBs
    " " " " " CAR -3 (Chris) " " "
    Bills @ Browns CLE (-3)  OVR 41.5 CLE 56% OVR 58% CLE -4 (Chris) CLE OVR preseason, no comments
    " " " " " CLE -4 (Andrew) " " "
    Last edited by -gunz- on 18:20:41 - 20/08/18
  • JUX -gunz- [984073]-gunz- [984073]
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    Posted on 16:55:50 - 18/08/18 (5 months ago)
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    TLDR: Betting TOR again because it's GAMBLING! 

    Lil bit disappointed that yesterday's TOR/NYY game was called after 7 innings.  TOR jumped out to a 4-2 lead in the 1st and held that til the 4th and then there was back and forth scores... TOR showed they do have some grit!  NYY also showed how they have the bigger bats on most days.  TOR is 4-10 against NYY this year and has dropped 3 to NYY since they last beat them.  I feel pretty confident they can snag one W from NYY in this 3 game series.

    With a little maths and excell...

    stake team/odds team/odds winnings profit profit %
    . NYY NYY . . .
    . 1.35 1.5 . . .
    5,000,000 6,750,000 7,500,000 14,250,000 4,250,000 43%
    . . . . . .
    . TOR TOR . . .
    . 3.6 3.4 . . .
    5,000,000 18,000,000 17,000,000 35,000,000 25,000,000 250%
    . . . . . .
    . NYY TOR . . .
    . 1.35 3.4 . . .
    5,000,000 6,750,000 17,000,000 23,750,000 13,750,000 138%
    . . . . . .
    . TOR NYY . . .
    . 3.6 1.5 . . .
    5,000,000 18,000,000 7,500,000 25,500,000 15,500,000 155%
    . . . . . .
    . NYY NYY . . .
    . 1.35 1.5 . . .
    5,000,000 0 7,500,000 7,500,000 -2,500,000 -25%
    . . . . . .
    . NYY NYY . . .
    . 1.35 1.5 . . .
    5,000,000 6,750,000 0 6,750,000 -3,250,000 -33%
    . . . . . .
    . TOR TOR . . .
    . 3.6 3.4 . . .
    5,000,000 0 17,000,000 17,000,000 7,000,000 70%
    . . . . . .
    . TOR TOR . . .
    . 3.6 3.4 . . .
    5,000,000 18,000,000 0 18,000,000 8,000,000 80%
    . . . . . .

    I'm sticking with TOR.  Yeah if I miss both and TOR can't pull off a win I'll be -100%.  If TOR wins just once it'll still be better profit than betting NYY and them winning twice.  Besides, NYY has disappointed me enough this year.  So, there's roughly two 36% chances for NYY to drop one of the remaining games... Betting TOR twice and connecting on one of them is still more profitable than betting NYY and missing on one.

  • JUX -gunz- [984073]-gunz- [984073]
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    Posted on 19:07:38 - 18/08/18 (5 months ago)
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    No time today for fancy tables...

    Yesterdays card was a lot of green...

    Today's (VERY quick) picks:

    • TOR (see above)
    • NYM (I'll eventually get this timed right)
    • CLE (Fuk u jobu! I do EET myself!)
    • OAK (Moneyball FTW!)
    • MIA (same principal as TOR/NYY)
    • ATL (might be value in COL though... would prefer OVR)
    • TBR (more value, they have been winning one per series)
    • DET (value, value everywhere!)
    • KCR (they're due, and they've taken 1-2 per series this year)
    • MIL (they've alternated W/L most of this season, would rather bet OVR)
    • LAA (I could make up crap here... mostly I just dislike TXR)
    • ARI (SDP are struggling too much to have any value IMO.)
    • SEA (SEA has value... they've swept teams LAD lost to, have a better recored, are at home etc...)

    And... why not piss away some on preseason games (betting half my regular bets just for fun)

    • OAK (Raiders had a good team last year)
    • DAL (I seem to recall DAL trying harder in preseason than CIN, shrugs)
    • TEX (As much as I dislike TX, SF still has stench from Kap'... Texans were good last year)
    • TB (coin flip)
    • DEN (Broncos had talent last year... and I seem to recall CHI being kinda "meh" on preseason)
    • SEA (go seachickens!)

    But seriously... pre-season is annoying :P

  • UR Pachico [2066685]Pachico [2066685]
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    Posted on 19:59:27 - 18/08/18 (5 months ago)
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    -gunz- [984073]

    No time today for fancy tables...

    Yesterdays card was a lot of green...

    Today's (VERY quick) picks:

    • TOR (see above)
    • NYM (I'll eventually get this timed right)
    • CLE (Fuk u jobu! I do EET myself!)
    • OAK (Moneyball FTW!)
    • MIA (same principal as TOR/NYY)
    • ATL (might be value in COL though... would prefer OVR)
    • TBR (more value, they have been winning one per series)
    • DET (value, value everywhere!)
    • KCR (they're due, and they've taken 1-2 per series this year)
    • MIL (they've alternated W/L most of this season, would rather bet OVR)
    • LAA (I could make up crap here... mostly I just dislike TXR)
    • ARI (SDP are struggling too much to have any value IMO.)
    • SEA (SEA has value... they've swept teams LAD lost to, have a better recored, are at home etc...)

    And... why not piss away some on preseason games (betting half my regular bets just for fun)

    • OAK (Raiders had a good team last year)
    • DAL (I seem to recall DAL trying harder in preseason than CIN, shrugs)
    • TEX (As much as I dislike TX, SF still has stench from Kap'... Texans were good last year)
    • TB (coin flip)
    • DEN (Broncos had talent last year... and I seem to recall CHI being kinda "meh" on preseason)
    • SEA (go seachickens!)

    But seriously... pre-season is annoying :P

    i followed most of your except the 2 where u had a *, went in the positive :) thanks :) well done 

  • JUX -gunz- [984073]-gunz- [984073]
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    Posted on 16:09:44 - 19/08/18 (5 months ago)
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    -gunz- [984073]

    No time today for fancy tables...

    Yesterdays card was a lot of green...

    Today's (VERY quick) picks:

    • TOR (see above)
    • NYM (I'll eventually get this timed right)
    • CLE (Fuk u jobu! I do EET myself!)
    • OAK (Moneyball FTW!)
    • MIA (same principal as TOR/NYY)
    • ATL (might be value in COL though... would prefer OVR)
    • TBR (more value, they have been winning one per series)
    • DET (value, value everywhere!)
    • KCR (they're due, and they've taken 1-2 per series this year)
    • MIL (they've alternated W/L most of this season, would rather bet OVR)
    • LAA (I could make up crap here... mostly I just dislike TXR)
    • ARI (SDP are struggling too much to have any value IMO.)
    • SEA (SEA has value... they've swept teams LAD lost to, have a better recored, are at home etc...)

    And... why not piss away some on preseason games (betting half my regular bets just for fun)

    • OAK (Raiders had a good team last year)
    • DAL (I seem to recall DAL trying harder in preseason than CIN, shrugs)
    • TEX (As much as I dislike TX, SF still has stench from Kap'... Texans were good last year)
    • TB (coin flip)
    • DEN (Broncos had talent last year... and I seem to recall CHI being kinda "meh" on preseason)
    • SEA (go seachickens!)

    But seriously... pre-season is annoying :P

    Pachico [2066685]

    i followed most of your except the 2 where u had a *, went in the positive :) thanks :) well done 

    my thoughts are... chase the big odds when it's a team that's shown they can win vs the other team... I dont always have time to type out what I researched.  All of the value bets I made were good teams facing other very good (maybe great at times) teams.  Odds shark makes it pretty easy to look at a teams schedule and see trends when they have matched up vs the same team in the past.

    Anyway... 

    falling asleep now, so... no more maths and charts... just the bookie results:

    Nothing amazing... bank acct still moved up some... nfc why they felt the need to steal my Miami win :(

     

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    Posted on 16:51:29 - 19/08/18 (5 months ago)
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    Gotta run folks to the airport this morning, so not a lot of time for this grid...

    Home OS exp safe(er) pick risky risk odds gunz pick
    Red Sox TB UND 9 BOS BOS TB ~25% 2.86 BOS
    Yankees NYY UND 8 NYY NYY TOR ~30% 3.15 TOR
    Indians tie UND 8.5 CLE -1.5 CLE BAL ~30% 3.45 CLE
    Reds CIN UND 8.5 OVR 8 --- --- coin flip CIN
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    Posted on 17:06:53 - 19/08/18 (5 months ago)
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    Full table:

    Away Home OS fav and O/U SCP expert picks safe(er) pick risky %chc risk odds gunz pick
    Rays Red Sox TB UND 9 BOS BOS TB ~25% 2.86 BOS
    Blue Jays Yankees NYY UND 8 NYY NYY TOR ~30% 3.15 TOR
    Orioles Indians tie UND 8.5 CLE -1.5 CLE BAL ~30% 3.45 CLE
    Giants Reds CIN UND 8.5 OVR 8 --- --- coin flip CIN
    Cubs Pirates PIT UND 8 CHI --- --- coin flip PIT
    Rockies Braves COL UND 8 ATL --- --- coin flip ATL
    Marlins Nationals MIA UND 9 WSH -1.5 WSH MIA ~25% 3.00 MIA
    Tigers Twins MIN UND 9.5 MIN MIN DET ~20% 2.86 DET
    Royals White Sox KC UND 9 CHI CHI KCR ~45% 2.4 KCR
    Brewers Cardinals MIL UND 8 UND 8.5 (STL) --- --- coin flip STL
    Angels Rangers LAA UND 11.5 LAA --- --- coin flip LAA
    Astros Athletics OAK UND 7.5 OAK --- --- coin flip OAK
    D-backs Padres ARI UND 8 ARI -1.5 ARI SDP ~15% 2.88 ARI
    Dodgers Mariners LAD UND 8 LAD LAD SEA ~45% 2.74 SEA
    Mets Phillies PHI UND 8.5 PHI -1.5 PHI NYM ~40% 2.66 NYM
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    Posted on 17:10:11 - 19/08/18 (5 months ago)
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    And my picks in a list for those on mobile (* = risky):

    • BOS
    • TOR *
    • CLE
    • CIN
    • PIT
    • ATL
    • MIA *
    • DET *
    • KCR *
    • STL
    • LAA
    • OAK
    • ARI
    • SEA *
    • NYM *
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    Posted on 17:27:07 - 19/08/18 (5 months ago)
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    -gunz- [984073]

    No time today for fancy tables...

    Yesterdays card was a lot of green...

    Today's (VERY quick) picks:

    • TOR (see above)
    • NYM (I'll eventually get this timed right)
    • CLE (Fuk u jobu! I do EET myself!)
    • OAK (Moneyball FTW!)
    • MIA (same principal as TOR/NYY)
    • ATL (might be value in COL though... would prefer OVR)
    • TBR (more value, they have been winning one per series)
    • DET (value, value everywhere!)
    • KCR (they're due, and they've taken 1-2 per series this year)
    • MIL (they've alternated W/L most of this season, would rather bet OVR)
    • LAA (I could make up crap here... mostly I just dislike TXR)
    • ARI (SDP are struggling too much to have any value IMO.)
    • SEA (SEA has value... they've swept teams LAD lost to, have a better recored, are at home etc...)

    And... why not piss away some on preseason games (betting half my regular bets just for fun)

    • OAK (Raiders had a good team last year)
    • DAL (I seem to recall DAL trying harder in preseason than CIN, shrugs)
    • TEX (As much as I dislike TX, SF still has stench from Kap'... Texans were good last year)
    • TB (coin flip)
    • DEN (Broncos had talent last year... and I seem to recall CHI being kinda "meh" on preseason)
    • SEA (go seachickens!)

    But seriously... pre-season is annoying :P

    Pachico [2066685]

    i followed most of your except the 2 where u had a *, went in the positive :) thanks :) well done 

    -gunz- [984073]

    my thoughts are... chase the big odds when it's a team that's shown they can win vs the other team... I dont always have time to type out what I researched.  All of the value bets I made were good teams facing other very good (maybe great at times) teams.  Odds shark makes it pretty easy to look at a teams schedule and see trends when they have matched up vs the same team in the past.

    Anyway... 

    falling asleep now, so... no more maths and charts... just the bookie results:

    Nothing amazing... bank acct still moved up some... nfc why they felt the need to steal my Miami win :(

     

    Yeah i know, i read everything u wrote, i just didn't feel like taking that risk, ik i was gonna lose some of the other picks, but i was like '' i'll still be in positive'' 

     

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    Posted on 23:39:27 - 19/08/18 (5 months ago)
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    -gunz- [984073]

    No time today for fancy tables...

    Yesterdays card was a lot of green...

    Today's (VERY quick) picks:

    • TOR (see above)
    • NYM (I'll eventually get this timed right)
    • CLE (Fuk u jobu! I do EET myself!)
    • OAK (Moneyball FTW!)
    • MIA (same principal as TOR/NYY)
    • ATL (might be value in COL though... would prefer OVR)
    • TBR (more value, they have been winning one per series)
    • DET (value, value everywhere!)
    • KCR (they're due, and they've taken 1-2 per series this year)
    • MIL (they've alternated W/L most of this season, would rather bet OVR)
    • LAA (I could make up crap here... mostly I just dislike TXR)
    • ARI (SDP are struggling too much to have any value IMO.)
    • SEA (SEA has value... they've swept teams LAD lost to, have a better recored, are at home etc...)

    And... why not piss away some on preseason games (betting half my regular bets just for fun)

    • OAK (Raiders had a good team last year)
    • DAL (I seem to recall DAL trying harder in preseason than CIN, shrugs)
    • TEX (As much as I dislike TX, SF still has stench from Kap'... Texans were good last year)
    • TB (coin flip)
    • DEN (Broncos had talent last year... and I seem to recall CHI being kinda "meh" on preseason)
    • SEA (go seachickens!)

    But seriously... pre-season is annoying :P

    Pachico [2066685]

    i followed most of your except the 2 where u had a *, went in the positive :) thanks :) well done 

    -gunz- [984073]

    my thoughts are... chase the big odds when it's a team that's shown they can win vs the other team... I dont always have time to type out what I researched.  All of the value bets I made were good teams facing other very good (maybe great at times) teams.  Odds shark makes it pretty easy to look at a teams schedule and see trends when they have matched up vs the same team in the past.

    Anyway... 

    falling asleep now, so... no more maths and charts... just the bookie results:

    Nothing amazing... bank acct still moved up some... nfc why they felt the need to steal my Miami win :(

     

    Pachico [2066685]

    Yeah i know, i read everything u wrote, i just didn't feel like taking that risk, ik i was gonna lose some of the other picks, but i was like '' i'll still be in positive'' 

     

    heh... I know you know :D lol!

    I guess I should have prefaced that those comments were also for others still trying to figure out the goofyness that is gunz. 

  • UR Pachico [2066685]Pachico [2066685]
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    Posted on 23:47:59 - 19/08/18 (5 months ago)
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    -gunz- [984073]

    No time today for fancy tables...

    Yesterdays card was a lot of green...

    Today's (VERY quick) picks:

    • TOR (see above)
    • NYM (I'll eventually get this timed right)
    • CLE (Fuk u jobu! I do EET myself!)
    • OAK (Moneyball FTW!)
    • MIA (same principal as TOR/NYY)
    • ATL (might be value in COL though... would prefer OVR)
    • TBR (more value, they have been winning one per series)
    • DET (value, value everywhere!)
    • KCR (they're due, and they've taken 1-2 per series this year)
    • MIL (they've alternated W/L most of this season, would rather bet OVR)
    • LAA (I could make up crap here... mostly I just dislike TXR)
    • ARI (SDP are struggling too much to have any value IMO.)
    • SEA (SEA has value... they've swept teams LAD lost to, have a better recored, are at home etc...)

    And... why not piss away some on preseason games (betting half my regular bets just for fun)

    • OAK (Raiders had a good team last year)
    • DAL (I seem to recall DAL trying harder in preseason than CIN, shrugs)
    • TEX (As much as I dislike TX, SF still has stench from Kap'... Texans were good last year)
    • TB (coin flip)
    • DEN (Broncos had talent last year... and I seem to recall CHI being kinda "meh" on preseason)
    • SEA (go seachickens!)

    But seriously... pre-season is annoying :P

    Pachico [2066685]

    i followed most of your except the 2 where u had a *, went in the positive :) thanks :) well done 

    -gunz- [984073]

    my thoughts are... chase the big odds when it's a team that's shown they can win vs the other team... I dont always have time to type out what I researched.  All of the value bets I made were good teams facing other very good (maybe great at times) teams.  Odds shark makes it pretty easy to look at a teams schedule and see trends when they have matched up vs the same team in the past.

    Anyway... 

    falling asleep now, so... no more maths and charts... just the bookie results:

    Nothing amazing... bank acct still moved up some... nfc why they felt the need to steal my Miami win :(

     

    Pachico [2066685]

    Yeah i know, i read everything u wrote, i just didn't feel like taking that risk, ik i was gonna lose some of the other picks, but i was like '' i'll still be in positive'' 

     

    -gunz- [984073]

    heh... I know you know :D lol!

    I guess I should have prefaced that those comments were also for others still trying to figure out the goofyness that is gunz. 

    lol it's ok, and, how did u do today ? i didn't bet on any cuz had all my cash locked up :/

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    Posted on 18:09:28 - 20/08/18 (5 months ago)
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    -gunz- [984073]

    No time today for fancy tables...

    Yesterdays card was a lot of green...

    Today's (VERY quick) picks:

    • TOR (see above)
    • NYM (I'll eventually get this timed right)
    • CLE (Fuk u jobu! I do EET myself!)
    • OAK (Moneyball FTW!)
    • MIA (same principal as TOR/NYY)
    • ATL (might be value in COL though... would prefer OVR)
    • TBR (more value, they have been winning one per series)
    • DET (value, value everywhere!)
    • KCR (they're due, and they've taken 1-2 per series this year)
    • MIL (they've alternated W/L most of this season, would rather bet OVR)
    • LAA (I could make up crap here... mostly I just dislike TXR)
    • ARI (SDP are struggling too much to have any value IMO.)
    • SEA (SEA has value... they've swept teams LAD lost to, have a better recored, are at home etc...)

    And... why not piss away some on preseason games (betting half my regular bets just for fun)

    • OAK (Raiders had a good team last year)
    • DAL (I seem to recall DAL trying harder in preseason than CIN, shrugs)
    • TEX (As much as I dislike TX, SF still has stench from Kap'... Texans were good last year)
    • TB (coin flip)
    • DEN (Broncos had talent last year... and I seem to recall CHI being kinda "meh" on preseason)
    • SEA (go seachickens!)

    But seriously... pre-season is annoying :P

    Pachico [2066685]

    i followed most of your except the 2 where u had a *, went in the positive :) thanks :) well done 

    -gunz- [984073]

    my thoughts are... chase the big odds when it's a team that's shown they can win vs the other team... I dont always have time to type out what I researched.  All of the value bets I made were good teams facing other very good (maybe great at times) teams.  Odds shark makes it pretty easy to look at a teams schedule and see trends when they have matched up vs the same team in the past.

    Anyway... 

    falling asleep now, so... no more maths and charts... just the bookie results:

    Nothing amazing... bank acct still moved up some... nfc why they felt the need to steal my Miami win :(

     

    Pachico [2066685]

    Yeah i know, i read everything u wrote, i just didn't feel like taking that risk, ik i was gonna lose some of the other picks, but i was like '' i'll still be in positive'' 

     

    -gunz- [984073]

    heh... I know you know :D lol!

    I guess I should have prefaced that those comments were also for others still trying to figure out the goofyness that is gunz. 

    Pachico [2066685]

    lol it's ok, and, how did u do today ? i didn't bet on any cuz had all my cash locked up :/

    Well.. not so pretty...  I rode with a LOT of risk (EXCEPT I gave up on TB when they FINALLY pulled off the win!)  If I'd stuck to my "gunz" with TOR I would have been up 3%.  As it was... down 20% 

    I picked up a few of the risky bets... that part went fine.  It was the evenly matched "coin flip" games that sucked.  The experts did shitty as well... especially if you remove the OVR and UND bets that we can't use in Torn... (they only got 5 straight picks correct compared to my 6).

    The computer did amazingly well!  It was 10 out of 15 and called ALL games as UND and actually got 9 of them right on that, lol.  I dunno if that's a good algorithm, or just overly aggressive bookies, shrugs.

    Away Home OS fav and O/U SCP expert picks safe(er) pick risky %chc risk odds gunz pick
    Rays Red Sox TB UND 9 BOS BOS TB ~25% 2.86 BOS
    Blue Jays Yankees NYY UND 8 NYY NYY TOR ~30% 3.15 TOR
    Orioles Indians tie UND 8.5 CLE -1.5 CLE BAL ~30% 3.45 CLE
    Giants Reds CIN UND 8.5 OVR 8 --- --- coin flip CIN
    Cubs Pirates PIT UND 8 CHI --- --- coin flip PIT
    Rockies Braves COL UND 8 ATL --- --- coin flip ATL
    Marlins Nationals MIA UND 9 WSH -1.5 WSH MIA ~25% 3.00 MIA
    Tigers Twins MIN UND 9.5 MIN MIN DET ~20% 2.86 DET
    Royals White Sox KC UND 9 CHI CHI KCR ~45% 2.4 KCR
    Brewers Cardinals MIL UND 8 UND 8.5 (STL) --- --- coin flip STL
    Angels Rangers LAA UND 11.5 LAA --- --- coin flip LAA
    Astros Athletics OAK UND 7.5 OAK --- --- coin flip OAK
    D-backs Padres ARI UND 8 ARI -1.5 ARI SDP ~15% 2.88 ARI
    Dodgers Mariners LAD UND 8 LAD LAD SEA ~45% 2.74 SEA
    Mets Phillies PHI UND 8.5 PHI -1.5 PHI NYM ~40% 2.66 NYM

     

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    Posted on 21:48:33 - 20/08/18 (5 months ago)
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    Took a long time with today's card.  Reformatted the spreadsheet (tried to condense and abbreviate the stuff no one looks at anyway, lol!)

    • Added CBS's computer picks: https://www.cbssports.com/mlb/expert-picks/ 
    • Added more public consensus info from here: https://www.wunderdog.com/public-consensus/MLB.html 
    • Added a risk column for people to see which ones I feel risky about :)
    • Also:
      • CBS computer: SPREAD PICKS 792 - 901 - 0 (47%) OVER/UNDER PICKS 703 - 990 - 0 (42%)
      • OS computer: Record (Closing) 66 - 33 - 1
    MLB Game OS comp pick + O/U CBS comp picks +O/U public cons RL ML O/U SCP expert Risk lvl or gunz odds Gunz pick (and why) Last 10 (Season, Home/Away) - and extra info/comments
    Braves @ Pirates ATL 5.6-4 O7.5 ATL +1.5 O7.5 PIT 57 ATL 61 O 60 ATL (Andrew) 50/50 ATL (value, ATL doing slightly better, and ATL fan) ATL 5-5 (68-55, 34-27A) PIT 4-6 (63-62, 35-31H) first game this year
    Orioles @ Blue Jays BAL 5.4-4.5 O9 BAL +1.5 PUSH TOR 82 TOR 71 O 61 O9 (Chris) minimal TOR (BAL = suck, and not worth the 2.52 odds) BAL 2-8 (38-87, 16-47A) TOR 3-7 (55-69, 29-32H) this yr: BAL 9-1
    White Sox @ Twins CHW 3.0-2.5 U9.5 CHW +1.5 O9.5 MIN 83 MIN 66 O 52 O9.5 (Andrew) 60/40 MIN MIN (MIN = less sucktastic, no O/U or HC to bet) CHW 5-5 (46-77, 22-38A) MIN 6-4 (59-64, 38-25H) this yr: MIN 7-5
    Indians @ Red Sox BOS 3.6-0 U8 BOS +1.5 O8 BOS 69 BOS 51 U 61 BOS (Randy) 50/50 BOS (BOS is hawt, but CLE is playing tough!) BOS = a "bit" better record. first meet this yr. RL open w/BOS +1.5, current CLE +1.5
    Royals @ Rays TB 4.6-2.5 U8 TB -1.5 O8 TB 92 TB 80 O 74 TB (Mark) minimal TB (KCR sux, no HC or O/U to bet KC 3-7 (38-86, 20-42A) TB 6-4 (63-61 34-24H) this yr TB 3-0
    Giants @ Mets NYM 3.5-1.4 U7.5 SF +1.5 O7.5 NYM 69 NYM 64 U 55 NYM (Randy) 55/45 NYM NYM (NYM playin better, better pitcher) SF 4-6 (61-64, 27-38A) NYM 6-4 (54-69, 24-37H) first game this yr
    Reds @ Brewers MIL 4.1-2.2 U9 CIN +1.5 O9 MIL 85 MIL 81 O 77 O8.5 (Mark) minimal MIL (shit odds, but CIN slumping worse, no O/U or HC to bet) CIN 5-5 (55-69, 24-34A) MIL 4-6 (69-57, 36-24H), this yr MIL = 7-3, CIN has only won when scoring big and they haven't scored much lately
    Rangers @ Athletics OAK 4.2-3.1 U9 TEX +1.5 O8.5 OAK 80 OAK 83 O 74 OAK (Andrew) 70/30 OAK OAK (OAK = hot TEX = meh) TEX 5-5 (56-70, 27-32A) OAK 7-3 (74-50, 37-25H), OAK leads 8-5 and swept last series
    Astros @ Mariners HOU 4.5-1.1 U8 SEA +1.5 O8 HOU 76 HOU 71 O 56 HOU (Chris) risky! HOU = tough on the road SEA (VALUE! Plus SEA = hotter recently AND swept last series 4-0 AND won every 1st game so far) HOU 3-7 (75-49, 42-20A) SEA 6-4 (71-54, 37-26H), SEA leads 7-6 and swept last series… Seattle has won the first in each series, even when losing or tying the series
    Cardinals @ Dodgers STL 2.8-2.7 U8 STL +1.5 U8.5 LAD 75 LAD 59 O 51 LAD (Randy) 50/50 STL (STL playing better recently, LAD = better talent) STL 8-2 (68-57, 34-29A) LAD 4-6 (67-58, 32-30H),  first game this yr

    And the bonus NFL preseason crap:

    NFL Game OS comp pick + O/U CBS comp picks +O/U public cons RL ML O/U SCP expert Risk lvl or gunz odds Gunz pick (and why) Last 10 (Season, Home/Away) - and extra info/comments
    Ravens @ Colts BAL 22.4-17.5 U43 x x BAL (Andrew) IDGAF BAL (no one cares) Hate Flacco… so much. IDGAF about Brissett… shrugs
    x x x x BAL (Randy) x x x

    Have fun + GL!

    Last edited by -gunz- on 13:59:14 - 21/08/18
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    Posted on 19:07:00 - 21/08/18 (5 months ago)
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    35% profit yesterday (37 if you count the goofy preseason NFL)

    Today's picks will be up in a lil bit.

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    Posted on 20:14:46 - 21/08/18 (5 months ago)
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    -gunz- [984073]

    35% profit yesterday (37 if you count the goofy preseason NFL)

    Today's picks will be up in a lil bit.

    i followed some and left some, ended up with a little bit of down, like 9mil or so, bets were 10-15mil :P got it back with the NFL preseason tho :P 

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    Posted on 21:17:40 - 21/08/18 (5 months ago)
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    Today's picks:

    MLB Game OS score & O/U CBS  picks +O/U public cons RL ML O/U %s SCP expert Gunz pick Risk lvl (gunz odds) plain language gunz thoughts Last 10 (Home/Away) - and extra info/comments
    Braves @ Pirates ATL 4.6-3.4 O7.5 PIT +1.5 O7.5 ATL 58 - ATL 67 - O 56 ATL (Randy) ATL ** (ATL 60-70%) ATL fan, and PIT = strugglin' ATL 6-4 (35-27A) PIT 3-7 (35-32H) ATL leads series 1-0
    Phillies @ Nationals WSH 6.4-2.5 U9.5 PHI +1.5 O9 WSH 70 - WSH 52 - O 56 WSH (Chris) PHI *** (PHI 50-60%) WSH is VERY beatable this year PHI 4-6 (27-34A) WSH 3-7 (31-30H) PHI = 6-4 vs WSH & 3-1 @ WSH 
    Orioles @ Blue Jays TOR 6.3-5.6 O9 BAL +1.5 O9 TOR 54 - TOR 65 - O 70 O9 or TOR (Andrew) TOR ** (TOR 60-70%) TOR has struggled lately, but has OWNED BAL BAL 2-8 (16-48A) TOR 4-6 (30-32H) TOR = 10-1 vs BAL & 8-1 vs BAL @ home
    Cubs @ Tigers CHC 6.5-1.9 U9 CHC -1.5 O9 CHC 85 - CHC 79 - O 57 CHC (Chris) CHC ** (CHC 60-70%) meh, they both suck CHI 5-5 (33-29A) DET 4-6 (32-30H) CHI = 2-0 vs DET @ home
    Indians @ Red Sox BOS 5.9-3.8 O9 CLE +1.5 O9 BOS 80 - BOS 72 - O 67 BOS (Mark) BOS **** (BOS ~55%) yesterday =wakeup call for BOS CLE 8-2 (33-28A) BOS 7-3 (44-17H) CLE = 1-0 vs BOS - CLE has split vs tough teams
    Royals @ Rays KCR 4.4-3.0 O7 TB -1.5 O7 TBR 78 - TBR 83 - O 55 TBR (Andrew) TBR *** (TBR 60=-70%) marked higher risk after yesterday's ONE RUN crap KCR (20-43A, 18-44H lol) TB (35-24H) TB = 4-0 vs KCR
    Yankees @ Marlins NYY 4.6-2.6 U7.5 MIA +1.5 O7.5 NYY 82 - NYY 81 - O 80 NYY -1.5 (Chris) NYY * (NYY 70-80%) NYY should own them, but… MLB = cray shit NYY 6-4 (33-26A) MIA 3-7 (28-35H) NYY & MIA = 1-1 this year
    Giants @ Mets SFG 5.1-4.9 O8 NYM +1.5 U8 SPLIT - NYM 58 - O 65 NYM (Randy) NYM ***** (coin flip) should be another great game SFG 5-5 (28-38A) NYM 6-4 (24-38H) SF leads 1-0 this year (won yesterday)
    Reds @ Brewers CIN 5.6-4.0 O9 CIN +1.5 U9 MIL 85 - MIL 75 - O 65 MIL (Andrew) MIL ** (MIL 60-70%) MIL = inconsistent, but seem to have the Reds figured out CIN 5-5 (24-35A) MIL 4-6 (37-24H) MIL = 8-3 vs CIN & 3-2 vs CIN @ home
    Twins @ White Sox CHW 4.2-2.9 U9 MIN -1.5 O9 MIN 64 - MIN 61 - U 57 MIN (Mark) MIN *** (MIN 50-60%) looking for MIN to bounce back in a pretty even matchup MIN 6-4 (21-39A) CHW 6-4 (24-39H) MIN = 7-6 vs CHW (even split H/A) CHW won at MIN last night
    Padres @ Rockies SDP 3.4-3.2 U10.5 SD +1.5 U10.5 COL 74 - COL 74 - O 58 COL -1 (Mark) COL ** (COL 60-70%) COL = tough at home and playing better than SDP SDP 3-7 (26-35A) COL 8-2 (31-27H) COL = 7-5 vs SDP, last game = May
    Angels @ D-backs ARI 4.5-0.7 U8 LAA +1.5 O8 ARI 83 - ARI 75 - O 57 ARI -1.5 ARI ** (ARI 60-70%) ARI is playing good, LAA = strugglin LAA 5-5 (30-33A) ARI 6-4 (32-29H) tied @ 1-1 this year (2 games @ LAA)
    Rangers @ Athletics OAK 3.7-2.1 U9  TEX +1.5 O9 OAK 81 - OAK 82 - U 58 OAK (Randy) OAK * (OAK 70-80%) Moneyball is on FIRE lately TEX 5-5 (27-33A) OAK 7-3 (38-25H) OAK = 9-5 vs TEX (split early games, 5-0 OAK since July)
    Astros @ Mariners HOU 4.3-1.8 U8.5 SEA +1.5 U8.5 SEA 51 - HOU 57 - SPLIT HOU (Andrew) HOU **** (HOU ~55%) SEA is playing great, but HOU gets Altuve back tonight  HOU 2-8 (42-21A) SEA 6-4 (38-26H) SEA won last night
    Cardinals @ Dodgers LAD 4.0-0.6 U8 STL +1.5 U8.5 LAD 63 - LAD 64 - O 53 STL (Randy) STL **** (STL 50-60%) STL is SOLID, but… LAD have the roster to beat anyone, so… risky STL 8-2 (35-29A) LAD 3-7 (32-31H) STL leads series 1-0

    Other thoughts:

    • It really sucks not having HC or O/U bets.  We can always hope they'll be added "soon"... oh, wait, B2.0 is buggy as hell... darn.
      • I would LOVE to bet +1.5 on CLE, SFG, and SEA.
      • I would also love to be -1.5 on NYY, COL, and ARI
      • I can see OVER paying off for BAL/TOR, CLE/BOS, and maybe NYY/MIA
    • Read an article about how betting against public consensus USED to be great but that consensus has gotten better as online gambling has become more popular. Joe Public was WAY RED yesterday.  And the article was right about the public LOVES betting OVER (all but 3 today are OVER).
      • Are you SERIOUS?!?! OVER for KCR @ TBR???  Did you even LOOK at the score from yesterday???

    Good luck!

    Easy to read list:

    ATL
    PHI
    TOR
    CHC
    BOS
    TBR
    NYY
    NYM
    MIL
    MIN
    COL
    ARI
    OAK
    HOU
    STL

    Last edited by -gunz- on 21:19:37 - 21/08/18
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    Posted on 05:49:28 - 22/08/18 (5 months ago)
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    So much chalk today :/

    Yeah, I went 10-5 and I'm glad for that.  Only 17% profit today with so many favorites winning... wish I'd stuck with CLE.