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Randognsac
ID: 862993
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Posts: 2171
Score: 1521
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Posted on Tue Aug 28, 2012 00:33:54
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Been busy lately and I figured no one cared about this thread, until I got a few requests to update it and keep it going. So here goes. My updated record is as follows.
393 Wins
622 Losses
2 Draws
Spent 35.539 Billion
Won 36.959 Billion
Total Profit 1.42 Billion
Lost 21.307 Billion on bets.
Today's bets are:
MLB:
50 mil. Blue Jays +1.5 2.05 (((WON))) 102.5
125 mil. Rays 1.80 (((LOST)))
100 mil. Padres 2.25 (((WON))) 225
Last Edited: Tue Aug 28, 2012 10:49:18
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Randognsac
ID: 862993
Level: 50
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Score: 1521
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Posted on Tue Aug 28, 2012 11:05:49
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***THIS IS AN EXAMPLE OF A CHASE***
In Baseball teams play each other 2,3, or 4 times in a row. This is called a series. When I "Chase" a team in a series, I am betting that they will win at least 1 game in that series.
So for example, today we bet on the Rays to win. If they lose that's okay, they still have 2 games left in the series to win. We just double the bet on Game 2 in the series. We want to bet enough on Game 2 to make a profit if they win. So if we double our bet and they win game 2, then we will get a nice little profit from it. Now if they lose Game 2 then we would need to double the Game 2 bet.
It can hurt if we lose all 3 games, but that has only happened a handful of times since the start of the season. Any questions?
Now for my plays today
08/28/12
3-1 (398-624-2) Spent 350 (36,164) Won 380.1 (37,666.71) Lost 150 (21,582)
MLB:
150 mil. Rays 2.10 - Game 2 of 3 of the Series and Chase. (((LOST)))
50 mil. A's 1.83 - Game 2 of 4 of the Series. Game 1 of the Chase. (((WON))) 91.6
100 mil. Pirates 2.00 - Game 2 of 3 of the Series. Game 1 of the Chase. (((WON))) 200
50 mil. Boston Red Sox +1.5 1.77 - Game 1 of 3 of the Series and Chase. (((WON))) 88.5
I want this to be easy to understand so if there are any questions address them in this thread. If you have a suggestion on how to make this easier to understand discuss it here.
Last Edited: Wed Aug 29, 2012 22:19:06
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Jackson28
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Posted on Wed Aug 29, 2012 14:02:27
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Thank you for bringing this back. 
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Randognsac
ID: 862993
Level: 50
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Posted on Wed Aug 29, 2012 16:27:12
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Gotta take my grandma to the hospital this morning. So I don't have a lot of time. Will update later.
I am abandoning the Indians today. If they lose today I might play them tomorrow. Also I accidently bet on the A's yesterday, so I got lucky with that one. Not sure how I didn't catch that.
I'm still playing the Rays. Game 3 of Series and Chase
I like these plays today, but didn't get to study on them, play at your own risk.
Yankees -1.5 1.77
Diamondbacks 2.05 Avoid Sweep
Red Sox - The Angels swept them last Series, I will probably Chase this one for sure if the line ever comes out.
Official plays:
08/29/12
1-2 (399-626-2) Spent 450 (36,614) Won 720 (38,386.71) Lost 150 (21,732)
MLB:
50 mil. Diamondbacks 2.05 (((LOST)))
300 mil. Rays 2.40 (((WON))) 720
100 mil. Red Sox +1.5 1.91 (((LOST)))
Last Edited: Thu Aug 30, 2012 06:47:41
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Randognsac
ID: 862993
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Score: 1521
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Posted on Thu Aug 30, 2012 15:47:41
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Might put 50 - 100 mil. on each of these teams to avoid the sweep today.
Red Sox 2.35
Phillies 1.87
Indians 1.95
Tigers 1.80
Astros 2.55
I like the Red Sox, Tigers and Phillies the best.
Also looking at the new series that are starting today will update after that.
08/30/12
3-3 (402-629-2) Spent 600 (37,214) Won 468.5 (38,855.21) Lost 350 (22,082)
MLB:
50 mil. Indians 1.95 (((LOST)))
100 mil. Phillies 1.87 (((WON))) 187
100 mil. Tigers 1.80 (((LOST)))
100 mil. Blue Jays +1.5 1.86 (((WON))) 186
200 mil. Red Sox 2.35 (((LOST)))
NCAAF:
50 mil. Vanderbilt +7.5 1.91 (((WON))) 95.5
Last Edited: Fri Aug 31, 2012 16:43:07
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Randognsac
ID: 862993
Level: 50
Posts: 2171
Score: 1521
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Posted on Fri Aug 31, 2012 16:50:45
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Red Sox screwed what could have been a good day betting wise yesterday. It's hard to believe that they got swept by the same team twice in a little over a week. The odds of that happening are so low, I thought for sure I would cash on that bet. Oh well moving on.
I am gonna chase the Pirates and Rangers -1.5 this weekend, might jump in on a few others if I get the itch. The White Sox and Padres look like good chases imo too. Here are today's plays so far.
MLB:
50 mil. Pirates 2.05 - I like the pitching matchups in the series and the odds too. We wanna chase dogs and the Pirates are good dogs to chase.
100 mil. Rangers -1.5 1.91 - Since the all star break the Rangers have won at least one game in each series by more than 2 runs. 13 for 13. So I will chase them to do the same against the Indians, who have all but given up.
100 mil. White Sox 2.18 - This will be a 2 game chase, if they lose both games I am just gonna deal with the losses. Favorable matchups and odds in the 1st 2 games.
50 mil. Twins 2.2 - Gonna chase the lowly Twins against the hot Royals. This is a tip from a respected bettor, follow at your own risk.
As I said earlier, i might jump on the Padres, depending on these earlier games. I may just wait till tomorrow though.
***THIS IS AN EXAMPLE OF A CHASE***
In Baseball teams play each other 2,3, or 4 times in a row. This is called a series. When I "Chase" a team in a series, I am betting that they will win at least 1 game in that series.
So for example, today we bet on the Rays to win. If they lose that's okay, they still have 2 games left in the series to win. We just double the bet on Game 2 in the series. We want to bet enough on Game 2 to make a profit if they win. So if we double our bet and they win game 2, then we will get a nice little profit from it. Now if they lose Game 2 then we would need to double the Game 2 bet.
It can hurt if we lose all 3 games, but that has only happened a handful of times since the start of the season. Any questions?
Last Edited: Fri Aug 31, 2012 17:38:14
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____dOOP____
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Posted on Fri Aug 31, 2012 23:58:34
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nICE THREAD!
bump +
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Randognsac
ID: 862993
Level: 50
Posts: 2171
Score: 1521
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Posted on Sat Sep 01, 2012 17:26:22
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Yesterday's Record:
1-2 (403-631-2) Spent 300 (37,514) Won 191 (39,046.21) Lost 150 (22,232)
Today's Plays: 09/01/12
MLB:
100 mil. Pirates 2.15 - Game 2 of the Series and Chase.
200 mil. White Sox 2.35 - Game 2 of the Series but last game of the Chase.
50 mil. Cardinals 2.05 - The Cards lost last night 10 to zero, I think they bounce back, and getting Lohse at + money is to good to pass up.
The Twins game was postponed yesterday so I am not gonna chase them with the Doubleheader on for today.
That will probably be all I will play today. Gonna be busy in Real Life.
***THIS IS AN EXAMPLE OF A CHASE***
In Baseball teams play each other 2,3, or 4 times in a row. This is called a series. When I "Chase" a team in a series, I am betting that they will win at least 1 game in that series.
So for example, today we bet on the Rays to win. If they lose that's okay, they still have 2 games left in the series to win. We just double the bet on Game 2 in the series. We want to bet enough on Game 2 to make a profit if they win. So if we double our bet and they win game 2, then we will get a nice little profit from it. Now if they lose Game 2 then we would need to double the Game 2 bet.
It can hurt if we lose all 3 games, but that has only happened a handful of times since the start of the season. Any questions?
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Randognsac
ID: 862993
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Score: 1521
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Posted on Sat Sep 01, 2012 17:27:41
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Thanks for the appreciation Doop.
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Randognsac
ID: 862993
Level: 50
Posts: 2171
Score: 1521
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Posted on Sun Sep 02, 2012 17:54:14
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Yesterday's Record: 09/01/12
1-2 (404-633-2) Spent 350 (37,864) Won 102.5 (39,148.71) Lost 300 (22,532)
The White Sox let me down hard yesterday as well as the Pirates. I might still chase the third game on the White Sox since it's the late game today. Gotta stick with the Pirates for sure. Still debating on throwing a 50 mil. bet on the Red Sox to avoid the sweep against the red hot A's. Also considering the same with the Braves to avoid the sweep against the Phillies.
Today's Plays:
200 mil. Pirates 2.40
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Randognsac
ID: 862993
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Score: 1521
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Posted on Mon Sep 03, 2012 16:59:57
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Yesterday's Record:09/02/12
0-1 (404-634-2) Spent 200 (38,064) Won 0 (39,148.71) Lost 200 (22,732)
What a shitty weekend to chase. Got to expect those sometimes. Just gonna move on to the new Series that are starting today.
I am going to start the week with 4 chases. The Padres, Orioles, Phillies and Royals.
Official Plays: 09/03/12
MLB:
50 mil. Orioles 1.95 - I think this series will be close with neither tem sweeping the other.
50 mil. Phillies +1.5 1.83 - If the +1.5 wins but the Phillies lose, we can still chase the Phillies in games 2 and/or 3
50 mil. Royals 2.40 - I hope the Royals win the first, then I'll go back to Rangers -1.5 rl on games 2 and/or 3.
50 mil. Padres 2.50 - The Padres play everyone tough at the end of the season and they are always big dogs. The Dodgers haven't gelled yet, so I see the Padres getting at least one of these games.
NCAAF:
100 mil. Georgia Tech +7.5 1.86 - September conference underdogs of three or more points, the record is 139-99-6, which is a 58.4% winning ratio.
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Randognsac
ID: 862993
Level: 50
Posts: 2171
Score: 1521
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Posted on Tue Sep 04, 2012 16:48:07
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Yesterday's Record: 09/03/12
3-2 (407-636-2) Spent 300 (38,364) Won 375 (39,523.71) Lost 100 (22,832)
Alright I got 2 Game 1's yesterday, have two Game 2's today. Also won my College Football bet getting back some of the losses over the weekend. Hope to secure a good profit this week. The NFL is starting tomorrow, "CAN'T WAIT!"
Official Plays: 09/04/12
MLB:
100 mil. Royals 2.20 - This is a 4 Game Series so it could get expensive if it gets to Game 4. I hope they win today, if they do I will Chase the Rangers in Game 3 or 4 in this series.
100 mil. Padres +1.5 1.87 - If the +1.5 wins today I am still gonna Chase the Padres on Game 3.
50 mil. A's 2.05 - This is a 2 Game Chase. Today and tomorrow. I call it jumping in.
These next 3 bets are from a reliable source. This is his info: The 1st 21 days of Sept every year I track a type of play that occurs only then. Its a FADE of any team on the +1.5 that the odds reach -200 or more...this has resulted in 70-75% success rate.
If this doesnt make sense just look at the winning %, that's what really matters.
20 mil. Cubs +1.5 1.83
20 mil. Astros +1.5 1.83
20 mil. Indians +1.5 1.87
Last Edited: Tue Sep 04, 2012 21:18:05
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Randognsac
ID: 862993
Level: 50
Posts: 2171
Score: 1521
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Posted on Wed Sep 05, 2012 17:04:18
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I f**ked up yesterday and added the wrong team onto the Padres game, so it got deleted. Wasted a good chase... Oh well.
Yesterday's Record: 09/04/12
2-3 (409-639-2) Spent 210 (38,574) Won 257.4 (39,781.11) Lost 90 (22,922)
Would have finished off 2 chases yesterday if I didn't f**k up. KC came through before it got to expensive so thats good. Only one left for today.
Official Plays: 09/05/12
MLB:
100 mil. A's 1.87
I will be betting on the NFL game later, stay tuned.
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Randognsac
ID: 862993
Level: 50
Posts: 2171
Score: 1521
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Posted on Thu Sep 06, 2012 20:32:59
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Yesterday's Record: 09/05/12
0-1 (409-640-2) Spent 100 (38,674) Won 0 (39,781.11) Lost 100 (23,022)
Been unlucky all week, fade me or play me, your call. I will have more chases tomorrow when all the new series start. I like 2 Baseball plays today.
50 mil. Yankees 1.91 - Good multi for the Yankees and the Orioles Starting Pitcher is fresh off the DL, usually a good idea to fade a pitcher coming back from an injury.
50 mil. Rangers/Royals Under 9 1.86 - Since the All Star Break the Rangers have had 1 game in each series to go under the total. Since this is the last game in the series and the previous 3 games went over, I am gonna bet the streak keeps going.
Last Edited: Thu Sep 06, 2012 20:47:39
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Randognsac
ID: 862993
Level: 50
Posts: 2171
Score: 1521
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Posted on Fri Sep 07, 2012 18:24:35
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Yesterday's Record:09/07/12
0-1 (409-641-2) Spent 50 (38,724) Won 0 (39,781.11) Lost 50 (23,072)
A horrible week for me, betting wise. I messed up again adding the totals, I didn't add the half point, so the Rangers/Royals under was a no bet, money returned. Sorry for whoever bet.
Gonna have three chases this weekend. Lets get them all!
09/07/12
MLB:
100 mil. Blue Jays 2.30
50 mil. Royals 2.43
50 mil. Brewers 2.25
Might have more later, stay tuned.
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Randognsac
ID: 862993
Level: 50
Posts: 2171
Score: 1521
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Posted on Sat Sep 08, 2012 17:59:20
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Yesterday's Record: 09/07/12
3-0 (412-641-2) Spent 200 (38,924) Won 464 (40,245.11) Lost 0 (23,072)
Yay, 3 game 1 wins! Anyway gotta keep it short and sweet. No analysis today, just plays.
Today's Plays: 09/08/12
MLB:
150 mil. Diamondbacks 1.77 - This is a jump in on Game 2.
NCAFF:
20 mil. Conneticut +4.5 1.91
20 mil. Wake Forest +10.5 1.91
20 mil. Purdue +14.5 1.91
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Randognsac
ID: 862993
Level: 50
Posts: 2171
Score: 1521
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Posted on Sun Sep 09, 2012 06:51:40
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Yesterday's Record: 09/08/12
4-0 (416-641-2) Spent 210 (39,134) Won 380.1 (40,625.21) Lost 0 (23,072)
I'm 4-0 on College Football so far this season, tomorrow starts my bread and butter sport the NFL. I'm on a 7-0 run right now, I hope it stays good for tomorrow.
It's late right now so I am just gonna throw out some leans right now and then explain them in more detail as I go. Probably leave it half done until I wake up. Figured I would get as much done as I can tonight. I still have to set my line ups for my fantasy teams too.
NFL:
100 mil. Buffalo Bills +2.5 1.91 - The Jets are a mess, they only scored 1 TD during Pre Season, I expect a melt down by Rex Ryan and Mark Sanchez anyday now. I wonder how long it will be until the fans start screaming for Tebow? If the Bills defense stops the inept Jets running game, I expect Sanchez to throw some INT's, giving the Bills the outright win. If I could bet the Money Line I would.
100 mil. Kansas City Cheifs +3.5 1.91 - Actual Line +1.0 That means the Public feels the same as I do about this game. The Cheifs are at home and Arrowhead stadium is a tough place to play. Atlanta has a potent passing game but I think their defense is what keeps the Cheifs in this game. Take the points and be glad you got them.
100 mil. New Orleans Saints -7.5 1.91 - Actual Line -9.0 That means the public like the Saints too. I think the Saints do not skip a beat and welcome RG3 to the NFL with a double digit loss tomorrow. The Redskins defense will have no answer for the Saints stellar offense.
Leans
Arizona Cardinals +2.5 1.91 Seahawks are a horrible away team. The Cards suck, but they will play their division rivals tough at home.
Last Edited: Sun Sep 09, 2012 07:55:50
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Caustic
ID: 845533
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Posted on Sun Sep 09, 2012 16:04:20
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Thanks a lot man this thread is awesome!
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Aligator
ID: 960840
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Posts: 333
Score: 18
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Posted on Sun Sep 09, 2012 19:13:51
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Good call on Diamondbacks!
Red Skins are kicking Saints a**.
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Randognsac
ID: 862993
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Posts: 2171
Score: 1521
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Posted on Mon Sep 10, 2012 02:24:57
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I suck, sorry guys.
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Caustic
ID: 845533
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Score: 132
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Posted on Mon Sep 10, 2012 04:08:50
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Well I only lost 1 bet from your picks, too bad it was on the Buffalo game and i lost all my winnings but still thanks alot!
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choccie
ID: 424921
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Score: 1887
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Posted on Mon Sep 10, 2012 11:56:01
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By Randognsac [862993]
I suck, sorry guys. |
I lost alot on these, not your fault, mine entirely
what amused me wasnt that you were wrong, it was the amazing way you were SO vastly incorrect you couldnt have put further from the truth in your forum post
better luck next time
Last Edited: Mon Sep 10, 2012 19:01:25
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Randognsac
ID: 862993
Level: 50
Posts: 2171
Score: 1521
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Posted on Mon Sep 10, 2012 19:07:28
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By choccie [424921]
By Randognsac [862993]
I suck, sorry guys. |
I lost alot on these, not your fault, mine entirely
what amused me wasnt that you were wrong, it was the amazing way you were SO vastly incorrect you couldnt have put further from the truth in your forum post
better luck next time
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That's what bummed me out the most. Everything I thought would happen, didn't. The Cheifs kept it close for a bit and then shit their pants. The Bills never had a chance and the Saints lost at home for the first time in like 20 games against a rookie QB no less.
Again I apologize for those that followed me on those picks. The first week always kills me. I get better as the season goes, believe me.
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Randognsac
ID: 862993
Level: 50
Posts: 2171
Score: 1521
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Posted on Mon Sep 10, 2012 19:20:21
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Yesterday's Record: 09/09/12
2-4 (418-645-2) Spent 900 (40,034) Won 764 (41,389.21) Lost 500 (23,572)
NFL:
100 mil. Buffalo Bills +2.5 1.91 (((LOST)))
100 mil. Kansas City Cheifs +3.5 1.91 (((LOST)))
100 mil. New Orleans Saints -7.5 1.91 (((LOST)))
100 mil. Arizona Cardinals +2.5 1.91 (((WON))) 191
200 mil. Greenbay Packers -5.5 (((LOST)))
300 mil. Denver Broncos -1.5 (((WON))) 573
Okay I went a little nuts after I lost all my morning game bets. I won some of my losses back. I would have put it in the thread yesterday, but if I was gonna sink my ship I didn't wanna drag more of you down with me. Gotta put it in the past though.
I have 2 MLB chases starting today. May have more in a bit.
(((EDIT)))Make it 3 chases. Remember if you bet these baseball bets and they lose, you gotta double up the next day.
Today's Plays: 09/10/12
MLB:
50 mil. White Sox 1.91
50 mil. Brewers 1.95 - The Braves are horrible on Monday's so I am hoping the trend wins today.
50 mil. Padres 2.00
NFL:
50 mil. Ravens -6.5 1.91
150 mil. Raiders -1.5 1.91
I will post my Monday Night Football picks in a little while.
Last Edited: Tue Sep 11, 2012 01:54:59
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Zurrgle
ID: 977198
Level: 35
Posts: 2833
Score: 794
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Posted on Mon Sep 10, 2012 19:54:56
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You have placed your bet of $5,000,000 on Milwaukee Brewers.
It's a lot for me.. But your reasoning made me laugh.. So I thought why not?
I also put 5m on the White Sox...
I wish us both luck! Haha
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Randognsac
ID: 862993
Level: 50
Posts: 2171
Score: 1521
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Posted on Mon Sep 10, 2012 22:53:59
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50 mil. Ravens -6.5 1.91
Not to confident in this pick, lets see what happens.
Will bet the Raiders in the late game. Not sure how much I wanna bet though, probably 100 mil. or more.
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Zurrgle
ID: 977198
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Score: 794
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Posted on Tue Sep 11, 2012 11:32:16
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You have won the bet on the Atlanta Braves At Milwaukee Brewers game! You bet $5,000,000 on Milwaukee Brewers and won $9,761,904!
You have won the bet on the Detroit Tigers At Chicago White Sox game! You bet $5,000,000 on Chicago White Sox and won $9,545,454!
NICE! Thanks a lot. I will be following your tips
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Randognsac
ID: 862993
Level: 50
Posts: 2171
Score: 1521
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Posted on Tue Sep 11, 2012 16:34:46
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Yesterday's Record: 09/10/12
4-1 (422-646-2) Spent 350 (40,384) Won 388.5 (41,777.71) Lost 150 (23,722)
MLB:
50 mil. White Sox 1.91 (((WON))) 95.5
50 mil. Brewers 1.95 (((WON))) 97.5
50 mil. Padres 2.00 (((WON))) 100
NFL:
50 mil. Ravens -6.5 1.91 (((WON))) 95.5
150 mil. Raiders -1.5 1.91 (((LOST)))
Would have been a great day, but the Raiders long snapper got concussed, and well the back up screwed the pooch. Still was a good day though. I'm on a 7-0 run on baseball, I haven't had to play a game 2 on a chase in that run.
Today's plays: 09/11/12
100 mil. Rangers -1.5 1.77 - Gonna chase the -1.5 trend the Rangers have won a game in each series by at least 2 since the All Star break.
50 mil. A's 2.25 - Revenge scenario, and a couple other trends point to the A's winning one more game in this 4 game series.
50 mil. Diamondbacks 2.25 - The Dodgers are playing .500 ball right now. 2 game series with the Dbacks, feels like a split series to me.
Last Edited: Tue Sep 11, 2012 21:56:16
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Randognsac
ID: 862993
Level: 50
Posts: 2171
Score: 1521
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Posted on Tue Sep 11, 2012 21:57:48
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I updated today's card. 3 more chases today.
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DD-
ID: 1006827
Level: 62
Posts: 10977
Score: 6219
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Posted on Tue Sep 11, 2012 22:23:51
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120mil on Blue Jays.
20mil on Rangers.
20mil on Diamondbacks
20mil on Athletics.
Bet 180mil all together for today.
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