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Forum Main>>Fun & Games>> Mafia 4 - A Prophecy Untold - Town Victory!
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narcomaprime

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Posted on Tue Jun 04, 2013 05:33:01
By GypsyTears [1288842]
By S2K [179029]
You know what? I think I'll take the risk and play this round... Earlier concern is that I'm going overseas and probably won't be active enough, but I'm hoping one login a day would be enough participation ^^ Count me in!


Well well well, look who's setting himself up for an easy alibi




yeahhhhh


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narcomaprime

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Posted on Tue Jun 04, 2013 05:34:30
By TheBathMan [1097030]
o_O

talking to yourself narc??

No, don't multi to fill a spot. f**king multis, some guy looking for me to be a middleman for his multi got me landed in federal for a few hours a few days ago. So annoying, I meant to send the money back to the guy who sent it to me, but had both their profiles open at the same time... Stupid mistake I know.

It won't be that hard to get 2 more ppl to join. Plus, I wouldn't get too worried about it, the more time before day phase 1 begins the more time I have to get the lewt!



i just wanted to post my scam alert

:)

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narcomaprime

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Posted on Tue Jun 04, 2013 05:38:29
youtu.be/7BmkBroiw1s


just do it

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TheBathMan

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Posted on Tue Jun 04, 2013 05:46:18
By narcomaprime [1706976]
youtu.be/7BmkBroiw1s


just do it


Omg I love the What, they're like my favorite band. Their best song is definitely that one that goes "Whaaaaaat are you"


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"The best laid schemes of mice and men often go awry" - Robert Burns
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TheBathMan

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Posted on Tue Jun 04, 2013 05:49:12
By TheBathMan [1097030]
By narcomaprime [1706976]
youtu.be/7BmkBroiw1s


just do it


Omg I love the What, they're like my favorite band. Their best song is definitely that one that goes "Whaaaaaat are you"


Couldn't believe it when their lead singer Kurt killed himself though, like whoever sold him that shotgun must be feeling reeeally guilty about it right now. Though some people say it's his wife, Pamela Courson, that drove him over the edge

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The_Reputed

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Posted on Tue Jun 04, 2013 06:09:21
By wolvie [1057741]
By The_Reputed [68232]
By MoonLily [433130]
i think i won't last long this time


You should be ok day 1 but you're right to worry. Its pretty obvious that the game has already boiled down to about three people who are most probable to die first unless there is cheating or a roleclaim. Queeg, Wolvie, and b0ti are the ones who need to be worried about that. Personally, i'm already suspicious of Gorgen...but maybe thats just experience talking. Narc and Scoot are who I'm personally after...revenge will be sweet


Already playing Mind Games


What? I never play mind games Wolvie, i just call it as i see it. If i were you though, i'd buddy up to someone who isn't very interesting and have them defend you. The 3 of you are prime targets because we're not likely to lynch Gypsy, Zed, Kip, or Angrynoob since they're relatively harmless, Sam just hosted last game, S2K has been too passive and suicided like Tchalla and Sharkbyte with role reveals, Gorgen has been mafia multiple times so low probability, i died first last game, and we'll be damned to lynch a new person Day 1. Narc, Skeptic, and Moonlily would be secondary suspects since they pay attention but they usually can't build a following even when they're talking alot of sense and/or are right... So that leaves the three of you to be targeted even before the game starts.



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The_Reputed

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Posted on Tue Jun 04, 2013 06:13:38
By The_Reputed [68232]
By wolvie [1057741]
By The_Reputed [68232]
By MoonLily [433130]
i think i won't last long this time


You should be ok day 1 but you're right to worry. Its pretty obvious that the game has already boiled down to about three people who are most probable to die first unless there is cheating or a roleclaim. Queeg, Wolvie, and b0ti are the ones who need to be worried about that. Personally, i'm already suspicious of Gorgen...but maybe thats just experience talking. Narc and Scoot are who I'm personally after...revenge will be sweet


Already playing Mind Games


What? I never play mind games Wolvie, i just call it as i see it. If i were you though, i'd buddy up to someone who isn't very interesting and have them defend you. The 3 of you are prime targets because we're not likely to lynch Gypsy, Zed, Kip, or Angrynoob since they're relatively harmless, Sam just hosted last game, S2K has been too passive and suicided like Tchalla and Sharkbyte with role reveals, Gorgen has been mafia multiple times so low probability, i died first last game, and we'll be damned to lynch a new person Day 1. Narc, Skeptic, and Moonlily would be secondary suspects since they pay attention but they usually can't build a following even when they're talking alot of sense and/or are right... So that leaves the three of you to be targeted even before the game starts.



You forgot Gheed and TDL in you analysis! Damn, those two must be the most dangerous...

Ok, we'll kill narc, then those two.

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wolvie

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Posted on Tue Jun 04, 2013 06:22:24
Well Every game is a clean slate and is not linked to the last game,
1. Sam hosting last game has no bearing on which side he lands on.
2. Gorgen being mafia multiple times again has no bearing on where he lands, probability can not be applied on unconnected events.
3. Well B0Ti sat out of last game, then why is he a target, will people like to lynch someone who just joined?
4. Tchalla was not a suicide if you remember it was an act to save himself and the townies.
5. I got slain on Night 2, and was harmless as well, wont people like me to stay in game a little longer

Lynching someone based purely on last games is and will be a bad idea. It has to be decided post the roles are distributed. and in any case first lynch or two is always a shot in the dark.
I am sure you are still sticking to your play style of testing each and everyone before making a decisions

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wolvie

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Posted on Tue Jun 04, 2013 06:29:57
And Dont Forget Queeg has baan Mafia, twice already. So if you say Gorgen's has low probability then so does Queeg.




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The_Reputed

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Posted on Tue Jun 04, 2013 06:30:40
Well see, thats the issue right there, its not a clean slate because we know that person just a smidge more each time. I tried to put Gorgen in the hotseat about that exact thing last game. Also, they are connected. While having a 25% to not be townie doesn't change, the chance of hitting that 25% 3 times in a row is much lower than hitting the 75% at least once in 3 tries. I understand if you don't like it, i certainly wouldn't if i had high chances to be lynched first. But the fact that we dont have any clues means, even if its instinctively, we'll use the past as an influential decision maker. It certainly does effect the game what we've done/said/played like in the past.

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The_Reputed

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Posted on Tue Jun 04, 2013 06:32:06
By wolvie [1057741]
And Dont Forget Queeg has baan Mafia, twice already. So if you say Gorgen's has low probability then so does Queeg.




Yeah that is true...

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1718784
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Posted on Tue Jun 04, 2013 06:34:11
By The_Reputed [68232]
Well see, thats the issue right there, its not a clean slate because we know that person just a smidge more each time. I tried to put Gorgen in the hotseat about that exact thing last game. Also, they are connected. While having a 25% to not be townie doesn't change, the chance of hitting that 25% 3 times in a row is much lower than hitting the 75% at least once in 3 tries. I understand if you don't like it, i certainly wouldn't if i had high chances to be lynched first. But the fact that we dont have any clues means, even if its instinctively, we'll use the past as an influential decision maker. It certainly does effect the game what we've done/said/played like in the past.


Gamblers fallacy.. Nuff said

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The_Reputed

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Posted on Tue Jun 04, 2013 06:37:29
By Tchalla [1718784]
By The_Reputed [68232]
Well see, thats the issue right there, its not a clean slate because we know that person just a smidge more each time. I tried to put Gorgen in the hotseat about that exact thing last game. Also, they are connected. While having a 25% to not be townie doesn't change, the chance of hitting that 25% 3 times in a row is much lower than hitting the 75% at least once in 3 tries. I understand if you don't like it, i certainly wouldn't if i had high chances to be lynched first. But the fact that we dont have any clues means, even if its instinctively, we'll use the past as an influential decision maker. It certainly does effect the game what we've done/said/played like in the past.


Gamblers fallacy.. Nuff said


Lol yes, my point exactly, we're all gambler's if we're playing a game of odds like this, Gorgen is certainly safe from us first day even if he's the necromancer or lichking

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TheBathMan

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Posted on Tue Jun 04, 2013 06:39:23
Guys, your roles in previous games doesn't have anything to do with what your roles will be in this game. Then it wouldn't be random selection. Everyone who plays will have a 5% chance of being Mephaela/Tobias/Koschei/Lich King/Necromancer, a 15% chance of being a Revenant, and a 60% chance of not getting a role at all.

P.S. the number of times I've nearly spelled 'Lich King' as 'Licking' is outrageous haha!

Last Edited: Tue Jun 04, 2013 06:40:04
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wolvie

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Posted on Tue Jun 04, 2013 06:41:38
By The_Reputed [68232]
Well see, thats the issue right there, its not a clean slate because we know that person just a smidge more each time. I tried to put Gorgen in the hotseat about that exact thing last game. Also, they are connected. While having a 25% to not be townie doesn't change, the chance of hitting that 25% 3 times in a row is much lower than hitting the 75% at least once in 3 tries. I understand if you don't like it, i certainly wouldn't if i had high chances to be lynched first. But the fact that we dont have any clues means, even if its instinctively, we'll use the past as an influential decision maker. It certainly does effect the game what we've done/said/played like in the past.


The important point is that these all are unconnected events and are being observed in isolation the probability of everyone getting a Green or a Red role is same for every event.


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The_Reputed

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Posted on Tue Jun 04, 2013 06:43:08
By wolvie [1057741]
By The_Reputed [68232]
Well see, thats the issue right there, its not a clean slate because we know that person just a smidge more each time. I tried to put Gorgen in the hotseat about that exact thing last game. Also, they are connected. While having a 25% to not be townie doesn't change, the chance of hitting that 25% 3 times in a row is much lower than hitting the 75% at least once in 3 tries. I understand if you don't like it, i certainly wouldn't if i had high chances to be lynched first. But the fact that we dont have any clues means, even if its instinctively, we'll use the past as an influential decision maker. It certainly does effect the game what we've done/said/played like in the past.


The important point is that these all are unconnected events and are being observed in isolation the probability of everyone getting a Green or a Red role is same for every event.


But not for how we play. What will you base your first vote off then?

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wolvie

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Posted on Tue Jun 04, 2013 06:56:19
By The_Reputed [68232]
By wolvie [1057741]
By The_Reputed [68232]
Well see, thats the issue right there, its not a clean slate because we know that person just a smidge more each time. I tried to put Gorgen in the hotseat about that exact thing last game. Also, they are connected. While having a 25% to not be townie doesn't change, the chance of hitting that 25% 3 times in a row is much lower than hitting the 75% at least once in 3 tries. I understand if you don't like it, i certainly wouldn't if i had high chances to be lynched first. But the fact that we dont have any clues means, even if its instinctively, we'll use the past as an influential decision maker. It certainly does effect the game what we've done/said/played like in the past.


The important point is that these all are unconnected events and are being observed in isolation the probability of everyone getting a Green or a Red role is same for every event.


But not for how we play. What will you base your first vote off then?


If you remember in last round my Vote was for No Lynch until you took the gamble and role claimed as traitor.
I will stick to the same until my mind gets changed to something else, solely depending upon what people post in this game. It will be unfair to just lynch/not lynch Queeg or Gorgen coz they have been successful mafia on two previous occasions and it will be equally unfair either to or not to suspect me and you coz we have been Townies all along till now.
Only mafia will be interested in lynching people who are threat to them so that they can have it relatively easy rounds ahead

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TheBathMan

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Posted on Tue Jun 04, 2013 07:00:11
By wolvie [1057741]
By The_Reputed [68232]
By wolvie [1057741]
By The_Reputed [68232]
Well see, thats the issue right there, its not a clean slate because we know that person just a smidge more each time. I tried to put Gorgen in the hotseat about that exact thing last game. Also, they are connected. While having a 25% to not be townie doesn't change, the chance of hitting that 25% 3 times in a row is much lower than hitting the 75% at least once in 3 tries. I understand if you don't like it, i certainly wouldn't if i had high chances to be lynched first. But the fact that we dont have any clues means, even if its instinctively, we'll use the past as an influential decision maker. It certainly does effect the game what we've done/said/played like in the past.


The important point is that these all are unconnected events and are being observed in isolation the probability of everyone getting a Green or a Red role is same for every event.


But not for how we play. What will you base your first vote off then?


If you remember in last round my Vote was for No Lynch until you took the gamble and role claimed as traitor.
I will stick to the same until my mind gets changed to something else, solely depending upon what people post in this game. It will be unfair to just lynch/not lynch Queeg or Gorgen coz they have been successful mafia on two previous occasions and it will be equally unfair either to or not to suspect me and you coz we have been Townies all along till now.
Only mafia will be interested in lynching people who are threat to them so that they can have it relatively easy rounds ahead


Which reminds me, I forgot to mention No-Lynch votes in teh r00lz, thanks bro


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The_Reputed

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Posted on Tue Jun 04, 2013 07:02:07
No lynch isn't option this game, under any circumstance for at least the first few days. Conversion plus kills...it'll be rough...that means rapid deterioration of the townie pool during night phase... That, coupled the fact that the more converts, the more people have to be lynched before that team is stopped, means lynching has to be ever active.

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The_Reputed

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Posted on Tue Jun 04, 2013 07:03:31
Sorry, mobile i'll quit posting before my posts are illegible

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wolvie

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Posted on Tue Jun 04, 2013 07:09:51
By The_Reputed [68232]
By Tchalla [1718784]
By The_Reputed [68232]
Well see, thats the issue right there, its not a clean slate because we know that person just a smidge more each time. I tried to put Gorgen in the hotseat about that exact thing last game. Also, they are connected. While having a 25% to not be townie doesn't change, the chance of hitting that 25% 3 times in a row is much lower than hitting the 75% at least once in 3 tries. I understand if you don't like it, i certainly wouldn't if i had high chances to be lynched first. But the fact that we dont have any clues means, even if its instinctively, we'll use the past as an influential decision maker. It certainly does effect the game what we've done/said/played like in the past.


Gamblers fallacy.. Nuff said


Lol yes, my point exactly, we're all gambler's if we're playing a game of odds like this, Gorgen is certainly safe from us first day even if he's the necromancer or lichking


lol, I will quote the wiki page on Gambler's fallacy

"The gambler's fallacy is a deep-seated cognitive bias and therefore very difficult to eliminate."

And it will be a Gambler's fallacy to assume that Gorgen or queeg can not be a mafia again or You and I can not be townie again (and other people who have been townies all along)

By The_Reputed [68232]
No lynch isn't option this game, under any circumstance for at least the first few days. Conversion plus kills...it'll be rough...that means rapid deterioration of the townie pool during night phase... That, coupled the fact that the more converts, the more people have to be lynched before that team is stopped, means lynching has to be ever active.


I understand your point of getting the lynch, but then it is important to do the correct lynching.
Lynching based on gambler's fallcy will just help the Red Teams and deteriorate the townie population even quicke


Last Edited: Tue Jun 04, 2013 07:11:07
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wolvie

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Posted on Tue Jun 04, 2013 07:16:27
Bathman, I am not sure if it is already clarified somewhere,
what will happen if the necormancer try to recruit the Doc or Cop. You have mentioend they can not be recruited, but what message will be conveyed to the town and necromancer

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The_Reputed

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Posted on Tue Jun 04, 2013 07:18:48
Um, i think you're missing my point. I am anticipating player moves, not saying who is going to be what.

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wolvie

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Posted on Tue Jun 04, 2013 07:23:36
By The_Reputed [68232]
Um, i think you're missing my point. I am anticipating player moves, not saying who is going to be what.


I was just discussing the point you made regarding Gorgen having a low probability of being mafia again .
As far as the players moves are concerned they will be totally based on their perception of who is going to be what. And all I am saying is that this perception should be based on what they do in this game and not on who they were in past games.

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The_Reputed

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Posted on Tue Jun 04, 2013 07:25:36
Fair enough

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TheBathMan

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Posted on Tue Jun 04, 2013 07:34:05
By wolvie [1057741]
Bathman, I am not sure if it is already clarified somewhere,
what will happen if the necormancer try to recruit the Doc or Cop. You have mentioend they can not be recruited, but what message will be conveyed to the town and necromancer


It'll show up in the Night Phase story. My original idea was that no recruits, failed or successful, were made known to the town, since it would lead to serious paranoia amongst the townsfolk, but that'd just be too unfair on the townies.

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Posted on Tue Jun 04, 2013 07:42:04
By TheBathMan [1097030]
By wolvie [1057741]
Bathman, I am not sure if it is already clarified somewhere,
what will happen if the necormancer try to recruit the Doc or Cop. You have mentioend they can not be recruited, but what message will be conveyed to the town and necromancer


It'll show up in the Night Phase story. My original idea was that no recruits, failed or successful, were made known to the town, since it would lead to serious paranoia amongst the townsfolk, but that'd just be too unfair on the townies.


Yeah I anyways think Townies stand a little chance in this game, unless the Cop and the Doc are able to land lucky hits early on.


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TheBathMan

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Posted on Tue Jun 04, 2013 07:47:09
By wolvie [1057741]
By TheBathMan [1097030]
By wolvie [1057741]
Bathman, I am not sure if it is already clarified somewhere,
what will happen if the necormancer try to recruit the Doc or Cop. You have mentioend they can not be recruited, but what message will be conveyed to the town and necromancer


It'll show up in the Night Phase story. My original idea was that no recruits, failed or successful, were made known to the town, since it would lead to serious paranoia amongst the townsfolk, but that'd just be too unfair on the townies.


Yeah I anyways think Townies stand a little chance in this game, unless the Cop and the Doc are able to land lucky hits early on.


You never know, necro could get lynched or night killed early, which would make it easier to eliminate the rest of the purple team. My original plan was to have 25 players (i.e. 17 townies) but looks like it could be hard enough to get 20! haha

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GypsyTears

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Posted on Tue Jun 04, 2013 07:52:26
By TheBathMan [1097030]
By TheBathMan [1097030]
By narcomaprime [1706976]
youtu.be/7BmkBroiw1s


just do it


Omg I love the What, they're like my favorite band. Their best song is definitely that one that goes "Whaaaaaat are you"


Couldn't believe it when their lead singer Kurt killed himself though, like whoever sold him that shotgun must be feeling reeeally guilty about it right now. Though some people say it's his wife, Pamela Courson, that drove him over the edge


Yeah, I saw 'em live at Altamont Free Concert led by Air Supply. I was right there when the alien came and swooped that one guy up from from crowd...tragic, ya know?

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GypsyTears

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Posted on Tue Jun 04, 2013 07:54:09
By The_Reputed [68232]
Um, i think you're missing my point. I am anticipating player moves, not saying who is going to be what.


I would think you'd anticipate their motives rather than their moves.

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